After three weeks of the XFL, most of what we learned we noticed Week 1, continues to hold true. The prize pools may have gone down, but they are still solid with 25K up top in the main 4-game slate.
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So let’s dive into what we learned about the XFL after Week 3:
1. TARGET AGGRESSIVE DEFENSES:
After three weeks, it is clear the most aggressive defenses in the XFL are the Houston Roughnecks, DC Defenders, and Arlington Renegades. Also, add whichever team is playing the Orlando Guardians (which this week is the Roughnecks).
ACTION ITEM: I will continue to prioritize playing at least one defense in Showdown to go overweight the field. More often than not, that is a profitable strategy. For Classic, I’m used to punting off DST in NFL DFS. But not in XFL DFS. The DST position is a key separator in XFL DFS and I’ll prioritize paying for the Roughnecks, Defenders, Renegades, or Guardians’ opponent.
2. TARGET QBs FROM PASS-HAPPY OFFENSES
We’ve discussed how some teams rotate QBs. But its also important in the XFL to target the QBs that drop back the most. The Seattle Seadragons, Houson Roughnecks and St. Louis Battlehawks pass at the league’s highest rates. So Ben DiNucci, Brandon Silvers, and A.J. McCarron all have over 100 pass attempts in three games.
ACTION ITEM: DiNucci, Silvers, and McCarron will always be my favorite targets because of their team’s pass rate and their snaps. If you add Vegas’ QB snaps, Brett Hundley is another viable option and San Antonio’s Jack Coan has 80 pass attempts as well.
3. 1 RB/4 RECEIVER BUILDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE:
We continue to see the winning lineups be 1 RB/4 Receiver builds (note receiver – can be a tight end). We finally saw some 100-yard bonuses last week, but just one RB (Morgan Ellison). I’ll mention again why I think RBs are being outscored by receivers:
-Not much 100-yard equity
-Bad offensive lines
-A lot of teams have a high pass rate in the red zone
-QBs vulturing TD opportunities
-Lack of RB targets
ACTION ITEM: I don’t think you need to set a hard rule. But I’m going to mostly build 4 receiver (sometimes 3 receivers) lineups, with just 1 or 2 running backs.
4. DATA – WHAT ARE THE SIGNALS TO FOLLOW AFTER WEEK 3?
Each week we’ll want to pay attention to usage data. As with any sport, the trick is to determine which data is sticky and we can follow and which is just noise. Check out the amazing database our coordinator Bruce (ukillbillwalsh in discord). It has every data point you need for every position:
ACTION ITEM: Look at players’ targets, carries, and routes run over the final box score. The underlying usage are the signals we should follow and monitor week to week.
5. A FEW TIGHT ENDS WITH SOLID VOLUME:
If you look at the tight ends on Bruce’s database, you’ll notice three with 75% snap rate, solid ADOT, and most importantly, solid targets per game. Sal Cannella, Cody Latimer (price jump this week), and Alize Mack are the three top tight ends.
Don’t be afraid to play these guys in GPPs as I think they’ll be owner owned compared to their receiver counterparts that get similar target share.
ACTION ITEM: I’m not saying to always play a tight end, but especially in the large field tournament, I don’t mind taking shots with any of these three (all at different price points).
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