After two weeks of the XFL, pretty much everything we noticed Week 1, held true for Week 2. We are pretty much watching NFL Preseason in the Spring. But the games are exciting with the rules and scoring, as most games have come down to the wire.
But again, as DFS players, we care more about the edge we can find and the money to be won. The main tournament still has 50K up top again this week! Remember, each week RPS subscribers have access to Bobby’s XFL Playbook, Bruce’s projections and the coordinators’ core plays for multiple slates. Use code MEG15 if you aren’t a member of Run Pure Sports yet!
So let’s dive into what we learned about the XFL Week 2:
1. DEFENSES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE:
As I discussed last week, the XFL QB and offensive line play has a lot to be desired. Which gives a massive edge to the defenses. In Week 2, six of the eight defenses scored 7 DK points or more. And three DST teams (Defenders, Roughnecks, and Brahmas) scored 10 or more DK points.
ACTION ITEM: I will continue to play a minimum of 1 DST in Showdown contests and not afraid to play 2 DST in the right matchups. Also, for Classic really look at the matchups for the defense (offensive line, quarterback they face) to try to hit on the defense that scores 12+ DK points or more. The Defenders and the Roughnecks have been the most aggressive defenses through two weeks.
2. QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL CONTINUES:
Through two weeks, 14 QBs have been used for eight XFL teams. For some teams, they simply rotate QBs and for others, there are QBs very much at risk of being benched.
ACTION ITEM: As you can see from the above link, the four QBs that lead the league in passing attempts through two weeks, are the “safest” QBs to play. Ben DiNucci, Brandon Silvers, A.J. McCarron, and Jack Coan are the four QBs to target based on playing time and pass rate. If Brett Hundley of Vegas is announced as the official starting QB for the Vipers, I may be willing to take some shots on him this week against Seattle.
3. RECEIVERS OVER RUNNING BACKS IN FLEX AGAIN AFTER WEEK 2:
The winning lineup for the 4-game slate in Week 2 had 4 receivers in the lineup total (2 in Flex). The only running backs that scored more than 10 DK points were Abram Smith (DC) and Max Borghi (Houston).
As I mentioned last week, I think there are multiple reasons you can point to for the lack of high running back scores. Here are a couple of reasons that come to mind:
-Not much 100-yard equity (more on that below)
-Split backfields
-Bad offensive lines
-A lot of teams have a high pass rate in the red zone
-QBs vulturing TD opportunities
-Lack of RB targets – even though Max Borghi resembles Christian McCaffery, he’s not getting targeted like CMC, nor are other RBs in the XFL
ACTION ITEM: I don’t think you need to set a hard rule. But I’m going to mostly build 4 receiver (sometimes 3 receiver) lineups, with just 1 or 2 running backs.
4. DATA – WHAT ARE THE SIGNALS TO FOLLOW AFTER WEEK 2?
Each week we’ll want to pay attention to usage data. As with any sport, the trick is to determine which data is sticky and we can follow and which is just noise. DK Nation did a great job again of the usage for QBs, RBs, and WRs below through the first two weeks:
ACTION ITEM: Look at players’ targets, carries, and routes run over the final box score. The underlying usage are the signals we should follow and monitor week to week.
5. FLOOR VS. CEILING – FOLLOW THE FLOOR:
When we play NFL DFS GPPs, we have to embrace the variance and chase the ceiling. Sometimes that means rostering players with a scary floor. In the XFL, we have yet to see the true ceiling that we’re used to in NFL. I don’t believe any player has achieved the 100-yard bonus or 300-yard bonus for QBs. We only have a couple of players with multi-TD games.
Perhaps in the XFL, we are better off looking for the best combo of solid floor plays instead of risky ceiling plays. Of course, we still want to look for ownership leverage spots in tournaments. So I’m not suggesting playing all the highest-owned players.
ACTION ITEM: Because of the variance of the XFL especially, targeting the volume for the safe floor, may not always work. Last week I was overweight on both RB Kallen Ballage and WR Deontay Burnett, both who were highly owned and seemed like safe floor plays. Together they didn’t crack 3 DK points and they buried some otherwise good lineups. But I still think it’s best in XFL to try to follow the volume (carries, routes run, targets per routes run, etc.) to find those solid floor plays.
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