The Roughnecks come into the one undefeated, with an easy path to 4-0. Houston has dominated every team they have faced so far, and today they have a Week 1 rematch. The Roughnecks hosted Orlando to open the season, and it was a slaughter. They easily picked up the win 33-12. In the past two weeks they had similar wins, knocking off Arlington 23-14 and San Antonio 13-22.
While they face a familiar foe today, this is the first time they will take their talents on the road. Opening the season with three home games certainly helped them, but now they will spend three weeks on the road.
There isn’t too much reason to think deeply about this game. Houston scores more than anyone else in the league and they allow the fewest points. While an upset would be wild, nothing has shown the Guardians are capable of that.
Orlando has been the laughingstock of the league. Every team is glad to have them around because no matter how poorly they perform, it won’t be worse than the Guardians. Every league needs a Taco, and Orlando is certainly that.
While their one-point loss last week may give bettors hope they are improving and can cover today, it’s worth noting that the Arlington Renegades are only slightly better than the Guardians. Houston clobbered the Renegades as well. Last week’s game said more about how terrible Arlington is than the improvements Orlando is making.
For some reason, this team continues to play Paxton Lynch, and while everyone seems to realize he is not a viable option under center, the Orlando coaching staff has still not caught on. His performance against the Renegades likely bought him another week, but Houston’s defense is a monster Lynch will not be able to overcome.
This game has by far the largest spread we have seen this season, but Houston should cover easily. A lean should be given to the over, but it is certainly not a lock. Houston to cover is the best bet in this game.
Houston -9 (-110) Over 37.5 (-110)