UFC Noche: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Best Bets


Bet #1: Valentina Shevchenko -170 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)

I think Grasso is a very skilled fighter but I have to side with the more polished veteran in this spot. Valentina was up on all scorecards before she was finished by Grasso. I think Valentina will have a big grappling advantage in this fight. She landed 4 of 6 takedowns for over 5 minutes of control time last time out and I think we see the same thing play out here. I think Valentina will be more cautious and will fight with a chip on her shoulder this time. She is focused and determined to get her belt back and I don’t want to say that the Grasso win was a fluke, because she is extremely skilled also but I still think Valentina is the better fighter. Grasso will have some advantages on the feet but I’m not sure she will be able to stop Val from taking her down over and over again. Sometimes these fighters that have dominated for so long needs something to keep them motivated and I think Valentina is extremely motivated to get her belt back and will make the changes that are needed to come back with the belt.

Bet #2: Kevin Holland +122 – Risk 1 Unit (FanDuel)

Holland is coming into this fight with a massive size advantage. He’s got a 4 inch height and 8 inch reach advantage over JDM. At range, I think Holland will be the much better striker and have a lot of success. Additionally, his level of competition is drastically better than JDM’s. He’s fought Chiesa, Ponzinibbio, Wonderboy and Chimaev in his last 4 fights. Compare this to Bassil Hafez, Randy Brown and Danny Roberts for JDM. I think both guys can have success on the feet but I also think Holland can have grappling success if he chooses to use it. I think this is a pretty close fight overall but in my opinion, the line should be flipped for Holland as the favorite and JDM as the underdog.

Bet #3: Cortez / Jasudavicius Fight Ends in Split Dec +330 – Risk 0.5 Units (DraftKings)

Tracy Cortez is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Melissa Gatto last year. She is 4-0 in the UFC and I think she is an underrated flyweight. Even before she got into the UFC she defeated Erin Blanchfield on the regional scene and that’s a win that has aged very well. Her bread and butter is her wrestling and grappling upside. She’s physical and uses her strength to her advantage well. On the feet I think she is pretty decent offensively. Defensively she struggles a bit and can definitely be hit. She averages just under 3 takedowns per 15 minutes with over 7 minutes of control time in her 4 UFC fights. Jasudavicus has a similar style to Cortez. Both fighters like to get this fight to the ground and find success there. Her boxing is decent but it’s not a place where she feels comfortable. She likes to physically dominate her opponents by getting in the clinch, getting a takedown and have top control. I think this will be a competitive fight both ways and wouldn’t be shocked to see both girls have success here at times.


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