UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Cannonier Best Bets

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: Jared Cannonier +105 – Risk 1 Unit (DraftKings)

Before diving into this fight I didn’t expect to land on Cannonier. Usually when we have a 39 year old fighter going up against a 29 year old fighter, I am more often than not going to side with the young buck. However, after looking into this fight a little deeper, I think we see this fight stay on the feet and I favor Cannonier in a stand-up fight. Derek Brunson is a much better wrestler than Marvin Vettori is and he shot for a take down 13 times in his bout against Cannonier and only had 3 successful takedowns. Cannonier throws with a lot of power and utilizes leg kicks very well. We have seen Vettori struggle to defend kicks to the body and inside leg kicks his whole career. He’s tough as hell and extremely durable but he does not defend these well. At some point in Marvin’s career, him eating so many punches is going to catch up to him and if there was a fighter who has the power to put him away, I think it’s Cannonier. I think Vettori has two pathways to win this fight. One is to be able to get Cannonier down and wrestle him. The second is to land a heavy head kick and put Cannonier out. Outside of these two things, I think Cannonier will be way too much for him on the feet. He’s faster, stronger and more technical standing and I favor him to get the win in this spot.

Bet #2: Nikolas Motta +155 – Risk 0.75 Unit (DraftKings)

A really fun fight here with Motta / Torres and I expect a lot of violence. Torres has had 15 pro fights and 14 of them have ended inside one round. I favor him to win round 1 at a pretty decent clip but I think Motta wins rounds 2 and 3 much more often. Even in Torres’ last fight against Camacho where he won by 1st round TKO, he looked like he was starting to gas after the halfway point of that round. I think he’s a major candidate to gas out if this fight gets into the 2nd round. Motta is super powerful, fairly durable and has tons of cardio if this thing goes late into the fight. I’m totally aware that he could be knocked out cold in round 1 but I’m willing to lay money on the underdog that I favor to win rounds 2 and 3 pretty heavily and who has the massive cardio edge. Additionally, I think Motta has faced tougher competition in his pro career than Torres has. Give me the plus money on the guy with the cardio edge.

Bet #3: Alessandro Costa ITD -135 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)

Another fun fight between a couple of flyweights here. Costa gets Jimmy Flick who is about as one-dimensional as they come. Flick has 16 pro wins and 14 of them coming by sub. He is an extremely high level grappler but he is awful standing up. Not only does he have extremely piss poor stand up from an offensive standpoint but he has shown time and time again that he can not take punches well. He doesn’t defend well at all and if he gets touched a few times, he’s getting dropped or he’s going to panic shoot for a takedown. Additionally, I don’t like where this kid’s head is at. He fought in Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020, fought a couple months later and then retired. He came back earlier this year after a 3 year lay off and got smoked by Charles Johnson in one round. He is always going to be live for a sub but he gets beat by Costa in every other aspect of this fight. Outside of Flick getting a hold of a limb, I think Costa beats him down here and is pretty much able to do what he wants. 



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