UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs Emmett Best Bets


Bet #1: Dumas / Brundage Under 1.5 Rounds -160 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)
Bet #2: Sedriques Dumas +160 – Risk 0.75 Units (DraftKings)

Taking the Under 1.5 and Dumas money line as a dog in this fight. I think both fighters are extremely live to finish this fight in the first round. Brundage is a pretty decent wrestler but outside of that, he’s a complete liability everywhere else. He has consistently shown he has about 3-4 minutes of gas before he completely fizzles out. He has a chance to finish this fight early but if this fight gets into the 2nd round, I think Brundage is absolutely cooked. I also think there was a big market overreaction against Dumas. He’s not a world beater by any means but he was a -150 favorite in his debut against Fremd and is now a decent sized dog against a worse fighter, in my opinion, and a guy who has no cardio. Dumas will have a 2 inch height and 7 inch reach advantage. I think he will have success standing this up and wouldn’t be shocked to see him drop Brundage and finish him on top. I like taking both of these bets as I think both guys have pathways to winning this fight early but if it doesn’t get finished early, Dumas would be a heavy favorite in the 2nd / 3rd rounds for me.

Bet #3: Amanda Ribas / Maycee Barber FDGTD +146 – Risk 1 Unit (FanDuel)

Normally I do not like to bet on women fights to finish inside the distance but this fight is an exception. I think there is a pretty massive grappling advantage for Ribas here. Barber was taken down 5 times and controlled for over 5 minutes against Lee in her last fight. She has a 45% takedown defense rating and Ribas is probably the best grappler she has faced. I think it’s likely that Ribas eventually gets a sub here but another reason I like the fight to finish inside the distance is that Barber has pathways to get a finish here too. Ribas has shown she can’t defend punches very well and she can get gassed later in this fight. Maycee hits hard and she will throw a bunch of volume. If she clips Ribas, she is 100% going for the finish. She likely gets the finish on the feet or she gets too aggressive and Ribas capitalizes off her mistakes. I think the fight ending inside the distance should be closer to even money here. 


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