UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov Best Bets

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: Michael Morales / Max Griffin FDGTD -115 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)

Morales is a killer. I think this kid has a massive ceiling. He’s just 23 years old so he has tons of room for growth and I think we see him get better fight after fight. In this matchup, he’s the taller fighter with a 3 inch reach advantage. Griffin leaves himself open to be hit a good amount and although he has shown to have a decent chin, I think Morales has the skill set and power to put him away. I like the inside the distance play because even if Morales doesn’t get the finish, Griffin also has some really good power and I think both guys will be throwing a ton. There is a possibility where Griffin’s chin holds up and we see Morales fade a little late in the fight and that’s where Griffin could capitalize. We are hoping for some violence here.

Bet #2: Grant Dawson -110 – To Win 1 Unit (FanDuel)

We’ve seen this line move from Dawson as a small dog to now a pick ‘em. I was able to snag Dawson earlier in the week at +108 but I still like this at -110. I think the line is still about 10-15 cents off and wouldn’t be incredibly shocked to see this get to -120 by the time of the fight. Ismagulov is actually a solid fighter that I like quite a bit. He’s got a slick stand up game and moves in and out of range very well. His main issue is his lack of grappling. Dawson has a high motor and is constantly searching for takedowns. He hasn’t had less than 7 minutes of control time in his last 6 fights. At 29 years old, I think Dawson is still getting better and it’s shown in his last couple of fights. He’s a slight liability on the feet and if he is not able to get the fight down to the mat, he will likely be in trouble but I see Dawson securing 3-4+ takedowns and accumulating 8+ minutes of control time here. Ismagulov is also in a weird spot where he announced he was retiring after his last fight against Tsarukyan due to health concerns but shortly after announced he was unretiring as he has one fight left on his contract. You never like to see that with a fighter because it makes you wonder where his head is at. Just another reason to like Dawson in this spot.

Bet #3: Benoit Saint Denis +245 – Risk 0.75 Units (FanDuel)

This line is just too wide, in my opinion. Bonfim is a solid fighter and deserves to be a favorite in this spot but this feels like another market overreaction. Bonfim goes from being a slight underdog against McKinney to a -315 favorite against Saint Denis? Saint Denis is as tough as they come. The former French Special Forces takes a ton of damage and has really poor stand up defense but he has shown to be extremely durable. We have seen him get absolutely lit up on the feet but he still has yet to be knocked down in the UFC. His ability to take damage wears down his opponents to the point they often get fatigued. I think there is a clear advantage for Saint Denis to take this fight to the mat and that will only increase the longer this fight goes and the quicker Bonfim starts to gas. There will be times this fight looks ugly but I have to take Saint Denis at this number with his durability, cardio and grappling upside. 

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