UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Gane Best Bets

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: Thiago Moises +140 – Risk 1 Unit (DraftKings)

We were on Saint-Denis in his last fight against Bonfim as a +285 underdog but this feels like a market overreaction to me. Saint-Denis is extremely tough and has a really good ground game. He takes a lot of damage but he’s going to keep pressing forward which I think breaks a lot of his opponents spirit. I like Moises here as I think he has fought the much tougher competition and I view him as a little more well-rounded than Saint-Denis. He’s better on the feet and I think he has the better Jiu-Jitsu game. Saint-Denis gets more fatigued as the fight goes on where I think Moises will be able to fight the full 15 minutes at a solid pace. I think this fight will be close and both fighters are live but this should be much closer to a pick ‘em for me and the fact we get the more well-rounded fighter as an underdog, is enough for me to put a bet on him.

Bet #2: Caolan Loughran +146 – Risk 1 Unit (FanDuel)

Loughran is making his UFC debut and coming in with an 8-0 record. 7 of his 8 wins have all come inside the distance. I think he has some decent upside for the division. He is a well rounded fighter. Has some good stand up game and holds a lot of power in his hands. He utilizes leg kicks pretty well also. Where I think he can really have an advantage is in his ground game. He has good entries on his takedowns and is well versed on the mat. Lapilus is making his return to the UFC after 7 years. He’s mostly a kickboxer with some decent hands as well. He uses knees and kicks really well. Especially in the clinch. He doesn’t have much grappling upside from an offensive perspective but defensively he’s not terrible. Has shown to have a decent ability to stuff takedowns but he has mostly faced lower level competition on his way back to the UFC. I like the underdog in Loughran here. I think he is a young, athletic fighter that is still making improvements from fight to fight. I think this fight will be close and like the above fight, the line should be closer to a pick ‘em. Lapilus will have moments, specifically with his striking and his ability to counter strike but I think Loughran has the wrestling chops to get him down.

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