UFC Fight Night: Simon vs Song Best Bets

YTD: +1.11 Units


Bet #1: Michal Oleksiejczuk +300 – Risk 0.5 Units
Bet #2: Michal Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO +650 – Risk 0.25 Units

There is no doubt that Caio is going to have a nice grappling edge in this fight and has the ability to look -400 if he is able to continuously get Michal down. He has good top control and Michal has shown inefficiencies on defending takedowns and being able to get up after being taken down. However, I think this is going to be by far the most difficult matchup Caio has faced in his career. Michal has elite power. The type of power where he only needs to land one shot to change the direction of the fight. Caio keeps his hands low and makes questionable decisions when he’s on his feet. He keeps his chin up high and he gets hurt with the lead jab and him constantly leaving his hands near chest level is going to give Michal opportunities to hurt him. Michal is going to put pressure on Caio from the jump and I like the value we are getting on him. Big test for Caio’s chin here.

Bet #3: Waldo Cortes-Acosta +160 – Risk 1 Unit

De Lima is a legend but Waldo has a 3 inch height advantage, 3 inch reach advantage and a 6 year age gap on him. De Lima is a big boy with some power, throws leg kicks and does have some decent grappling game when he chooses to use it. Outside of the pure power aspect, I think Waldo is a much better boxer. He can put together some nice combinations and has a really solid lead jab that I think will give de Lima some trouble. I rate his cardio to be much better than de Limas here as well. The path for de Lima will be to get Waldo down to the mat as I don’t think Waldo has a good ground game whatsoever. However, I think the quickness and elusiveness of Waldo will carry him to victory. De Lima will always have round 1 upside but his last 4 fights have been against Arlovski (44 years old), Ivanov (37), Rothwell (41) and Greene (36). Getting plus money on a 31 year old who has the height, reach, boxing and cardio edge is too good for me to pass up.

Bet #4: Charles Johnson -140 – To win 1 Unit
Bet #5: Charles Johnson ITD +275 – Risk 0.5 Units

Perhaps I am looking at this fight all wrong but I think Charles should be closer to a 2:1 favorite in this spot. Every single one of Durdens wins in the UFC came against guys who don’t have winning records in the UFC. Charles has objectively faced tougher competition thus far. The good from Durden is his wrestling and often comes early in the fight. After round 1, I view Durden as a major candidate to get gassed. He starts panic shooting from range and puts together a really sloppy stand up game. I think Charles has some sneaky good take down defense and when he does get taken down, he’s incredibly difficult to hold down. He’s constantly scrambling to get back to his feet. He has a significant cardio edge, throws more volume and is much better on the feet than Durden. He’s constantly active and I like that for a fighter. I actually think Charles is a pretty good fighter where I don’t think Durden is very good. He has 1, maybe 1.5 rounds of decent wrestling before he’s shooting for his life. I think Charles can get him out by TKO or Sub or here.

Bet #6: Jamey-Lyn Horth by Submission +350 – Risk 0.5 Units

We get a super low level women’s fight to start off the night. I don’t rate either one of these women very high but I think there’s a decent gap between Horth and Cowans skill set. Cowan is a super low volume fighter. Tries to use her clinch game to get the fight to the ground but even when she gets you down, she’s not active from top. She has a really poor stand up game and has a lot of holes from a defensive grappling perspective. Gives up limbs on multiple sequences on the mat. Horth also has poor stand up but I think she has much better grappling than Cowan. When she gets you down, unlike Cowan, Horth is extremely active on top. Constantly trying to throw damaging shots to get you out. I think if she is able to get Cowan on the ground, Cowan will give up her back after taking ground and pound and Horth is able to get the sub. All 5 of Horth’s pro fights have finished inside the distance and she is extremely durable.

Potential Live Betting Spots:

– Cody Brundage after round 1
– Fernando Padilla after round 1
– Martin Buday after round 1

Full Card Picks:

– Simon by Decision

– Michal by TKO/KO
– Vieira by Submission
– Padilla by Decision
– Waldo by TKO/KO
– Quinlan by TKO/KO
– Buday by Decision
– Johnson by TKO/KO
– Egger by Decision
– Newson by Decision
– Horth by Submission


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