UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Almeida

Really rough card from a betting perspective this week. A lot of low level fights which just increases the variance so I would look to be more cautious on bets. There could be a few live betting spots if things go right but for the most part, there won’t be a ton of action coming from me this weekend.

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: Jailton Almeida by TKO/KO +220 – Risk 0.5 Units

Another classic grappler vs striker matchup on tap for the main event this week. Almeida is an absolute freak of nature. He looks for the takedown within the first 60 seconds of every fight. He has a 70% takedown accuracy and lands 6.73 takedowns per 15 minutes. We saw Rozenstruik get taken down 3 times in his fight against Blaydes and was controlled for over 6 minutes. Rozenstruik’s most likely path to victory is to land a big shot early in this fight as he is probably one of the more technically sound strikers we have in the HW division. Good skill set with some good power. It’s obvious Almeida’s most likely outcome will be that he will get Rozenstruik to the ground and ultimately submit him. However, all of this is baked into the submission line and I personally do not like to bet on submission props where you aren’t getting plus money. -115 for Almeida to win by Submission is okay but it’s not how I like to play things. I think Almeida by TKO/KO at +220 is a solid play. I could see a scenario here where Almeida gets Rozenstruik down, Rozenstruik covers his head and we see Almeida ground and pound him until the fight gets stopped. Another play I looked at was doing a Same Game Parlay on this fight and taking Almeida money line + Almeida to have most takedowns. You can get it around -300 and I think that’s a decent line honestly but I prefer going with the TKO/KO at plus money this week.

Bet #2: Bryan Battle +115 – Risk 0.75 Units

I kind of like this Battle kid as a fighter. I think he has shown some potential. He looks good on the ground, has solid top control and looks for the finish. Green has some good cardio, constant pressure but he struggles to defend takedowns and specifically struggles to get up after being taken down. Guys like Phil Rowe who I don’t rate as highly as Battle in the grappling game were able to get him down and pile on 5+ minutes of control time. I think this should be Battle’s strategy here. Get Green to the mat, control him and wear him down. If Battle keeps this fight on the feet there is no doubt that things could get dicey for him. He has a clear pathway to success, now let’s just hope he uses it.

Full Card Picks:

– Almeida by TKO/KO
– Smith by Decision
– Garry by Decision
– Ulberg by TKO/KO
– Morono by TKO/KO
– McGee by Decision
– Williams by Submission
– Stamann by Decision
– Kim by Decision
– Battle by Decision
– Lisboa by Decision



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