UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Dos Anjos Best Bets

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: Mike Breeden +225 – Risk 0.5 Unit (DraftKings)

Quick turnaround for McKinney here as he is coming off a 2nd round submission loss less than a month ago. We all know what to expect from McKinney. He’s super explosive and is going to come out of the gate hot. He has serious power and some real good wrestling. However, with all of this comes him getting completely gassed after about 3 minutes. His last 9 wins have all come in the 1st round and 6 of his losses have come inside 2 rounds. He has seen the 3rd round just one time in his 19 fight career. A lot of pressure will be riding on Breeden in this fight. After losing his lone fight in the Contender Series in 2020 he is 0-2 in the UFC and with a loss he could be on the chopping block. However, losing to Natan Levy and Alexander Hernandez is nothing to look down upon. Breeden is going to want to keep this standing as he does not have very good ground game and he is easily taken down. McKinney taking this fight on short notice isn’t going to help his cardio by any means but that never mattered in the first place. He finishes this fight early or he gets finished late. I’m gonna go with the big underdog to get the upset. If he survives the first few minutes, he wins round 2 and 3 at a pretty high clip.

Bet #2: Jamie Pickett +280 – Risk 0.5 Unit (DraftKings)

Going with another big underdog here. I think Fremd deserves to be a favorite in this spot but the line is just too wide, in my opinion. Pickett is going to be best served utilizing his 4 inch reach and keeping this fight at range. Although he was taken down and submitted in the 1st round in his last fight to Bo Nickal, he showed some decent takedown defense against a high level wrestler. Pickett was able to stuff 3 of Nickals 4 takedown attempts in that fight. Fremd is an okay grappler but by no stretch is it his bread and butter. I can see this fight playing out on the feet a decent amount. Both of these guys have big holes and neither one has much upside in the UFC. I think Pickett likely has the power edge on the feet and at nearly 3:1 odds, I’m going to side with the underdog in this spot.

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