Bet #1: Kai Kara-France / Amir Albazi FDGTD -120 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)
A fun main event we have here. Both of these guys are good flyweights and I think we will see some action early. KKF will likely have the striking edge. He has good hands but really sharp kickboxing game. Albazi is no slouch on the feet either. He has some solid technique and does have some decent power but make no mistake, his grappling game is his best attribute. KKF has finished or been finished in 4 of his last 5 fights. Albazi has finished 3 of his 4 UFC fights ITD. I think as this fight goes on we will see one of these guys start to put the pressure on the other and probably 3rd, 4th and 5th we see someone breakdown. My lean would probably be Albazi late due to his grappling upside and the ability to wear KKF down but wouldn’t be shocked to see KKF clip either as this is a pretty big step up in competition for Albazi. I have the FDGTD at around a 60% clip so we are getting a nice 5% edge on the price.
Bet #2: Ketlen Souza +190 – Risk 0.75 Units (DraftKings)
Another week, another women underdog bet. It didn’t go our way 2 weeks ago but we go back to the well again. Silva is a good fighter. She is solid on her feet and just as slick off her back. I think she wins round 1 in this spot at a pretty high clip. However, 12 of her 15 pro wins have come in the first round. She has been to the 3rd round twice in her career and lost both. If she isn’t able to get a finish early, she starts to fade a little bit in my opinion. Souza is making her UFC debut and I think she is a tougher challenge than most will expect. She has some real power and 2 of her last 3 fights have been won in a 5 round decision. So, I don’t expect cardio to play a factor for her much at all. I still think Silva has the pathway in round 1 to finish her but I favor Souza pretty heavily in the 2nd/3rd round. Perhaps this is an even better live betting spot after round 1 for Souza but I still like the price tag we get here. This will be a sweat early but if we can get to the 2nd round, I feel pretty good about Souzas ability to put some pressure on Silva and close this one out.
Bet #3: Luan Lacerda -145 – Risk 2 Units (DraftKings)
I like this spot for Lacerda a decent amount. I don’t Blackshear to have much success taking this to the mat and I think Lacerda will have a grappling edge in this spot. He’s also going to throw much more volume than Blackshear will throw and Blackshear has some real difficulties avoiding getting hit. The one issue with Lacerda here is that he also can be hit on the feet but I think this is a major step down from his debut fight against Stamman. Lacerda should be able to have his way wherever this fight takes him.