UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Bueno Silva Best Bets


Bet #1: Holly Holm To Win + Over 1.5 -150 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)

Holms’ moneyline is about -180 most places. We missed out on the early -150 line over at DraftKings but I really like taking her moneyline plus the over 1.5 here. Be sure you go to “Fight Parlays” on Draftkings to get the -150 number. If you simply try to SGP her moneyline with the over 1.5, it’s actually a worse line at -170. I think it is incredibly likely that if Holm wins this fight she isn’t going to get an early finish. Holly has one win in her UFC career where she didn’t hit the over 1.5 and that was 8 years ago against Ronda Rousey. It’s always a little nerve wracking to back the 41 year old fighter but I really like this matchup for Holly. She’s the naturally bigger fighter with a 2 inch height and 3 inch reach advantage. She should have a significant advantage on the feet. I don’t rate Bueno Silva’s boxing very highly at all and especially her defensive boxing. I think Holly wins minutes on the feet pretty easily but the obvious pathway for Bueno Silva is to get this to the mat as she is extremely well versed in the grappling game. 4 of her 5 UFC wins have come via submission and she is always live to snatch a limb and make you pay. The issue for Bueno Silva here is that her takedown attempts aren’t all that effective. I don’t like her entries at all and Holly has shown to be tough to takedown with a 78% takedown defense. I like Holly to keep this on the feet and get the decision win.

Bet #2: Nazim Sadykhov -142 (FanDuel)

Really fun fight on tap here. Nazim takes on a guy in Terrance McKinney who is almost always going to be live for a finish in the first few minutes of round 1. 12 of his 13 pro wins have all come in the first round. The issue with McKinney is that he is complete toast if this fight hits the 2nd round. Honestly, if the fight hits the 3 minute mark in round 1 he is a real liability to gas. There are a few things I like and don’t like about Nazim. Something I don’t like is that he has shown some pretty shaky defense on his feet. Elder was able to land a few big shots on him. What I do like, though, is the fact he was able to take those shots and still get right back on his feet without looking like it affected him that much. I also love the pace this guy brings. He is constantly pressing forward, stalking his opponents. He’s almost always leading the dance and I love that. Going up against a guy like McKinney who has consistently shown to fade after 2-3 minutes of action, I think Nazim can break him. The constant pressure will be too much for McKinney. Like I said, there is a reason to be worried early as McKinney will always have that pedigree to finish the fight in minutes but I have to favor the guy who I think wins rounds 2 and 3 at an extremely high clip. 


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