UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill

Another poor fight night card brought on by the UFC this week. As was the case last week, I recommend being cautious with your bankroll. Tons of low level fights in store and the randomness could be high on Saturday. With all that in mind, I think we have a few decent value spots to target.

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: Emily Ducote +135 – Risk 1 Unit

A trend you’ve seen from me and will likely continue to see is betting on the underdogs in women’s fights. Especially those that I view as a 50/50 fight. This one is no different. Ducote is a well rounded fighter. We have mostly seen her be on her feet through her 2 UFC fights, however, she was a collegiate wrestler. So, I know she is at least competent in that department and she will know how to use her weight to gain advantages in the fight. Most importantly, the skill set I like the most from Ducote is her kicking game. She has a Taekwondo background and utilizes calf kicks, kicks to the body and head kicks very well. Ducote is going up against a girl who is surely to be the better overall grappler but the big knock on Godinez is that she is taking this fight just a little over a month after her last fight. We talked about this a couple weeks back in regards to Burns taking the Belal fight just after a month had passed since his fight with Masvidal. There is just no way a fighter can be at their absolute peak taking fights every month. Ultimately, I think Ducote will be able to do more damage on the feet and will be the fresher fighter. So, give me the dog here.

Bet #2: Andre Fialho ITD +300 – Risk 0.25 Units

This is likely to be a slow paced fight with both guys in kicking ranges from the jump. Neither guy throws a ton of volume but I don’t rate Buckley nor his ability to take a shot very well at all. Fialho is a heavy hitter. He has tons of power in his hands and while he isn’t this high level striker by any means, he is likely to be the more technical fighter on the feet. Both of his UFC wins have come via round 1 KO while 3 of Buckley’s 4 UFC losses have come by KO. Buckley is moving down from 185 to 170 and that should give him an advantage in the wrestling department if he chooses to use it. However, I think the cut down to 170 has the ability to make him even more susceptible to being knocked out. Would I be completely shocked if these 2 stay at kicking range for the majority of the fight and Buckley ultimately gets a takedown, gasses Fialho out and wins a decision? No, I wouldn’t be. I just think Fialho has more ways of finishing this fight and I think if he lands on Buckley, he could hurt him and get him out.

Bet #3: Hayisaer Maheshate +140 – Risk 0.75 Units

Opposite of the Fialho / Buckley fight, I think we see a decent amount of pace in this fight. Both guys are pretty lower level fighters, however, Maheshate is only 23 years old. He has the ability to grow and learn from each fight he has. Neither one of these guys look to incorporate much grappling into their game but if they choose to, I think Maheshate is the most likely to do so. Borshchev is a terrible grappler and has really weak take down defense. Either way, the most likely outcome is that both of these guys stand on their feet and are willing to trade. I think Maheshate is likely the more durable fighter, has more power and has the better grappling upside if he chooses to. Mix that in with the fact he’s the younger fighter and has the ability to grow more from fight to fight, I think going with the underdog is the right play.

Bet #4: Vanessa Demopoulos +116 – Risk 1 Unit

As I mentioned with the Ducote / Godinez fight, I like to back the underdogs in womens fights that I view as 50/50 fights. Neither one of these women are spring chickens. Demo is 34 and Karolina is 37. Karolina without a doubt has a much better resume and a much more difficult strength of schedule. She has fought Rose, Joanna, Andrade, Grasso, and Yan. The issue is those fights were anywhere from 3 to 7 years ago. Karolina gets hit a ton and I think without question that Demo has the power advantage on the feet here. Karolina is sloppy on the feet and at 37, I think Demo will be able to take advantage of that. She isn’t technically sound whatsoever but she brings a fast pace early in the fight. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Karolina get dropped early and Vanessa to take top control and win round 1 pretty convincingly. If I have her winning round 1 at a pretty high clip and she is the underdog in the fight, It’s just a clear side for me. As always, we like to back women underdogs in fights we view as being closely contested. 



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