UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs Tybura Best Bets


Bet #1: Chris Duncan -140 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)

Duncan is a super well rounded fighter. He’s got decent striking but really holds a ton of power. He gets hit pretty easily but luckily for him, he’s fairly durable. Duncan could look -300 in this fight if he makes it a focal point to utilize his wrestling. In his UFC debut he attempted 14 takedowns on Omar Morales. He was successful on 5 of those and had over 6 minutes of control time. I think Yanal is pretty good on the feet but I don’t rate his defensive wrestling very highly at all. I think this fight is pretty competitive on the feet. I think both guys will land shots but I think Duncan has the massive wrestling edge. If he comes in with the same game plan as he did in his last fight against Morales, I think he can get 4-5+ takedowns and control this fight. Mike Brown is one of the best game plan coaches in the sport and I have to think they want to get this on the mat.

Bet #2: Daniel Barez -106 – To Win 1 Unit (FanDuel)

Barez is making his UFC debut after getting a shot in the Contender Series where he lost a split decision to Carlos Hernandez in 2021. He followed up that loss with 4 straight finishes in the 1st round. This guy is a finisher. 13 of his 16 pro wins have come by way of finish. What I love about Barez is that he is extremely well rounded. He has legit grappling upside but I really like what I see on his feet. He manages distance well and is constantly mirroring his opponent. The leg kicks from Barez are his bread and butter. He utilizes them often and they are super effective. He does a really good job with ending his combinations with leg kicks. Always active. Utilizes knees and elbows in the clinch and off the break. This guy possesses some real power in his hands and that’s power we don’t typically see in flyweights. I think he is better than Filho in almost all aspects of MMA. Faster, more power, and the much better wrestler. Because of Filho’s grappling upside he will always have a chance off of his back but I think Barez should have his way here.

Bet #3: Andre Muniz ITD +100 – Risk 1 Unit (DraftKings)
Bet #4: Andre Muniz by TKO/KO +430 – Risk 0.25 Units (FanDuel)

It’s always a little nerve wracking betting against Paul Craig as he is always live to snag a limb and get a submission. The difference in this spot is that Muniz is extremely well versed in the grappling game as well. He’s not afraid to mix it up on the mat and has the skillset to do that. Even against a feared grappler like Craig. I think this is closer on the mat than most people will probably think. On the feet, it’s a complete mismatch. Craig is a massive liability if this fight stays standing. It’s extremely possible that Muniz gets a submission victory here but I can’t help but take him to win by TKO/KO at this price. I think he can knock him out cold on his feet or he could ground and pound him out on the mat. 


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