UFC 292: O’Malley vs Sterling Best Bets

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: Maryna Moroz +130 – Risk 1 Unit (DraftKings)

Silva is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming inside of the 1st round. She’s pretty well rounded in terms of her skillset. Good grappling and has some good hands as well. She has a lot of power for the division and has 9 KO/TKO victories to show for it. All 16 of her pro wins have come inside the distance and of those 16, 12 have come in the 1st round. She’s only had 2 fights reach the 3rd round and she is 0-2 in those fights. She holds massive upside early but can be seen as a liability if this fight gets extended. Moroz is also a well rounded fighter. She’s a much more active and efficient striker than Silva. Her grappling is probably not as good as Silvas but she still holds a ton of upside in that department. These two girls have actually fought before. In 2014 Moroz submitted Silva in the first round. They were 23 and 21 years old so I don’t think there is a ton to be said based on that fight 9 years ago. Silva is going to have a lot of upside in the early parts of this fight. However, her cardio is a serious concern. Moroz has yet to be finished in her pro career and if Silva is not able to get her out early, I suspect Moroz will have a pretty clear edge in the later rounds. Neither girl has very great takedown defense but I think Moroz will be able to take her down late in this fight when Silva is fatigued. I think this fight is closer to a pick ‘em so give me the underdog here.

Bet #2: Kurt Holobaugh +150 – Risk 1 Unit (DraftKings)
Bet #3: Kurt Holobaugh by Decision +450 – Risk 0.25 Units (DraftKings)

Holobaugh last fought in the UFC in 2019 where he went 0-3 during that stretch but he fought some stout competition. Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos and Raoni Barcelos are no slouches. At 36 years old I am not sure he has the upside to make a big run in the UFC but I think this guy has a decent skill set. He’s pretty good on the feet and has some real power. I think he is an above average wrestler too. He throws a decent amount of volume and I think that benefits him in a close fight. Hubbard is the much younger fighter at 31 years old and most would think that means he has more upside in the UFC. I am not so sure about that as I don’t think he is very skilled. He is tough and very durable but outside of that, I don’t love his game. He last fought in the UFC in 2021 where he went 3-4 that stint. His 3 wins came against guys with a combined record of 0-5 in the UFC. He throws some decent leg kicks and has shown some wrestling upside but I don’t think he has very strong takedown defense. I think both guys are really durable and although he is the older fighter, I favor Holobaugh in this fight. I think it should be much closer to a pick ‘em. I rate Holobaugh as the better striker and the guy with more grappling upside. I see this fight going the distance at a fairly high clip and I think Holobaugh being the guy with more volume and more power will give him the edge in a close fight.

Bet #4: Sean O’Malley +215 – Risk 0.5 Units (DraftKings)

I know I am likely in the minority here and I fully understand that Aljo has the ability to look -1000 if he is able to string together takedowns. My reasoning for backing O’Malley here is pretty straight forward. I don’t think Aljo is the takedown specialist that everyone seems to think he is. He has just a 24% accuracy on his takedown attempts and attempted 39 takedowns against Yan and was successful on just 3. His strength comes from his ability to hold you down when he finally gets that takedown. He’s a chain wrestler with a mean back take and if he gets the body triangle locked in, you’re likely not getting out of it. O’Malley has been on the sideline for 10 months preparing for one of Cejudo or Sterling. Both guys that look to do one thing and that is to take you down. I have to believe that O’Malley and his team have been drilling defending takedowns non-stop for almost a year now. At age 28 I still think he has the ability to improve from fight to fight. If he is able to stuff a couple of these takedowns and this fight plays out at range, O’Malley is going to be able to piece him up. He is much more dangerous on the feet. Hopefully he is able to stuff these takedowns and find success at range. I’ll be backing the underdog here and willing to look like a fool if Aljo dominates.

Bet #5: Marlon Vera ITD +350 – Risk 0.5 Units (DraftKings)
Bet #6: Marlon Vera Round 2 +1100 – Risk 0.15 Units (FanDuel)
Bet #7: Marlon Vera Round 3 +1600 – Risk 0.15 Units (DraftKings)

I love this spot for Chito here. He’s going to be the bigger fighter against Munhoz with a 2 inch height and 5 inch reach advantage. We were able to cash on Munhoz in his last fight against Chris Gutierrez but I think this is a much more difficult matchup for him. Munhoz throws good leg kicks but he gets hit way too much and at 36 years of age, I think it’s clear he’s on the backend of his career. Chito is likely coming into his prime and he has massive power in his hands. He is just extremely violent. Utilizes all of his limbs really well. He’s normally a slower starter so that’s why I like to take stabs at the round 2 and round 3 finish. Ultimately, I think Chito is going to have a lot of success on the feet and is going to hurt Munhoz at some point and he’s going to go for the finish.

Bet #8: Andrea Lee +270 – Risk 0.5 Units (FanDuel)

 

Andrea Lee is coming into this fight losing 5 of her last 7 bouts. However, 3 of those 5 losses were in pretty close split decisions where I think it could have gone either way. She’s coming off a split decision loss to Maycee Barber where she landed 5 of 5 takedowns for over 5 minutes of top control. She’s decent on her feet but mixes in her wrestling really well. She has shown that she can be hurt at times but has only been finished once in her career and that was about 15 fights ago. Silva is a 26 year old prospect that is 3-0 in the UFC and coming off 2 TKO finishes. She’s an explosive fighter and has gotten a finish in 12 of her 15 pro wins. She’s active on the feet and has some real skill in this area. She’s no slouch on the ground either. Silva isn’t a great wrestler but she does hold some legit submission upside. I understand why Silva is a favorite here but Andrea Lee always has a way of making fights competitive. She’s usually pretty active in round 1 and her wrestling abilities allow her to keep fights close. The real question here is if she will be able to get Silva down. Silva has shown to have some really good takedown defense in her fights to this point but if Lee has success getting her down, I think she will be a big minute winner. I’ve got to take a stab at the underdog here in a fight that I expect to be much closer than the odds suggest.



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