UFC 290: Volkanovski vs Rodriguez Best Bets

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: Alex Volkanovski / Yair Rodriguez FDGTD -138 – To Win 1 Unit (FanDuel)

Really like this fight to finish inside the distance here. I expect Yair to try and push the pace on Volk in this fight and he has finishing upside if this fight stays on the feet. He could present some challenges for Volk in this area, specifically with his high kicks. Yair is a very technical striker. On the Volk side, I think he has the power edge on the feet but should hold a massive grappling edge over Yair. Max Holloway secured 3 of 5 takedowns against Yair and Jeremy Stephens secured 3 of 4 takedowns. Volk is a significantly better wrestler than these two and I think he can get him down whenever he wants and when he does, he will be able to get a finish at some point in this 5 round fight. I think Volk takes him down and has his way towards a finish or Yair catches Volk at some point. Either way, I like this fight to finish inside the distance and think there is value up until -150 honestly.

Bet #2: Denise Gomes / Yasmine Jauregui FGTD -135 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)

Now we get a women’s fight where I think the fight goes the distance line is just too short. Yasmine has some real skill and I consider her to be a legit prospect in the women’s division. She’s got a really slick stand up game with some decent power. She puts a good amount of pace on her opponents. She is a bit of a liability with her striking defense as she doesn’t block punches very well, though. I think Gomes is a worthy opponent to make this fight go the distance. She’s a fairly durable fighter and I expect her to be able to hang in there for the 3 full rounds. She has only been finished once in her career and it was her pro debut in 2017. In my opinion, this line should be closer to -170 so getting -135 for a WMMA fight to go the distance is just too good to pass up.

Bet #3: Jalin Turner to win by TKO/KO +190 – Risk 0.75 Units (FanDuel)

I’m expecting a lot of violence early in this fight. I wanted to take the Under 1.5 but the best line available was -106 and I can’t bet it at that number. I think Hooker will have some grappling upside if he chooses to use it but I favor Turner heavily on the feet. Turner has a much better chin than Hooker. He hasn’t been finished on the feet since his UFC debut against Vicente Luque in 2018. He throws more volume and has more power than Hooker. I think we see this become a fire fight and I don’t like how Hooker looks under constant pressure. If he’s not able to get Turner down, he’s gonna be in trouble. Turner is the younger fighter with the height, reach and power advantage. Not to mention, Turner has been training with Khamzat and although that is a hard thing to quantify, I do think it matters. Turner is massive for this 155 pound division and that showed with him missing weight for this fight. He looked drained on the scales but I still favor him here. Give me Turner by KO/TKO.

Bet #4: Moreno / Pantoja Fight Won By Split Dec +550 – Risk 0.25 Units (DraftKings)

I lean Moreno to get the job done in this one but -200 is a little too rich for my blood. I think Moreno has greatly improved since his last 2 losses to Pantoja. His first loss came in 2016 during The Ultimate Fighter where he was submitted. He was 22 years old at this time and Pantoja was 26. Fast forward 2 years later, Moreno lost a decision to Pantoja. He was just 24 and Pantoja was 28. Now we are getting a much improved Moreno who is 29 years old and in his fighting prime going up against a 33 year old Pantoja. Outside of The Ultimate Fighter fight in 2016, neither one of these fighters have been finished. I think both guys are very game and I think we see both of these guys have flashes of success. It will likely be a competitive fight and I love taking the split decision prop hoping that we see both guys have success and we see it go the distance.

Bet #5: Shannon Ross by Decision +460 – Risk 0.25 (FanDuel)

This is a pretty gross fight against two lower level fighters. I don’t rate Ross highly at all and he likely is out of the UFC soon but I also don’t rate Aguilar highly either. I think Aguilar is a super durable fighter who takes punishment fairly well. He’s not a very good striker at all and constantly looking to pull guys on top to try and work his ground game. I ultimately think this fight goes the distance and I slightly favor Ross out right. He should be able to win minutes on the feet and likely doesn’t take too much damage on the mat.

OTHER GREAT ARTICLES

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *