UFC 289: Nunes vs Aldana Best Bets

BEST BETS:

Bet #1: SGP Amanda Nunes ML + Nunes Most Takedowns + Nunes Most Significant Strikes -105 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)

A much different type of bet than I usually take but I like how this one looks. I think Nunes is likely better everywhere here but there is one clear edge and that’s the grappling for Nunes. There’s no doubt Nunes has the power to put Aldana’s lights out but Aldana is a capable stand up fighter. She has decent boxing and has some power. Aldana was taken down 3 times to Chiasson and 5 times to Holly Holm. If these girls can get her down multiple times there is not a doubt in my mind that Nunes will struggle getting her down. I think Nunes is actually a pretty high IQ fighter and usually has no problem exploiting her opponents weaknesses and I think she does that here. Throwing in the Significant Strikes for Nunes also correlates well with her winning. In all 15 of her wins she has never lost the SS battle and that’s also counting for two decision wins against Valentina Shevchenko. I think Nunes can have success anywhere this fight goes but there’s no doubt that she is at the most risk for trouble if she keeps this fight standing.


Bet #2: Nassourdine Imavov -155 – To Win 1 Unit (DraftKings)

Big fan of Imavov’s game. I think this is a fight between a guy in Imavov who is well rounded and holds a really good skill set going up against a guy in Chris Curtis who I feel is one-dimensional. Curtis is a good boxer, no question about it but Imavov is just better in so many areas. He’s a much better grappler and utilizes leg kicks at a pretty high rate. Imavov is 8 years younger and has a 5 inch height advantage. He is going to be the much bigger fighter and I think that plays a large role in this fight. Curtis could struggle getting inside and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Curtis get picked apart from range for the majority of this fight. Curtis has shown to be a little bit of a slow starter so I have Imavov winning round 1 at a pretty decent clip. So, if you like Curtis I think it’s best to wait after round 1 to get a better number.


Bet #3: Diana Belbita -116 – To Win 1 Unit (FanDuel)

I normally do not like to invest in lower level women favorites but this line is pretty close to a pick ‘em and I actually think Belbita should be closer to a -140 favorite here. I think she has looked much better since dropping down from 125 to 115. I think this fight is likely to stay up on the feet but if it goes to the ground, it’s probably Belbita taking it there. On the feet Belbita will likely be throwing much more volume. She is an active fighter and I think that also impacts judging scoring, especially if there isn’t a lot of damage or takedowns. At 115, I think Belbita has the strength edge unlike at 125. She can dominate in the clinch with knees and elbows. She has a good muay thai background and when she hurts you, she’s not afraid to go for the kill.

Bet #4: Adam Fugitt to win in Round 2 +1100 – Risk 0.15 Units (FanDuel)
Bet #5: Adam Fugitt to win in Round 3 +1500 – Risk 0.15 Units (FanDuel)

I want to be very clear that there is a real chance that Malott get’s Fugitt out of there in the first round. All 9 of his wins have come in the first round and this seems to be a guy that the UFC wants to push. Fugitt is certainly a step up in competition for Malott but he’s not a world beater by any means. The question with Malott is how will he look if this fight gets into the 2nd or 3rd round. We have one sample of him going 3 rounds and after winning round 1 he got beat up pretty good in rounds 2 and 3. Fugitt has shown to be fairly durable in his career and if he’s able to last 5 minutes in the first round, I will favor him pretty heavily in rounds 2 and 3. His cardio has been proven throughout his career where I think Malott’s has not. Here’s to hoping he survives round 1!

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