Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks
Betting Spread Nets -2.5. Total 236
What’s up everyone it’s that time of the week again where we breakdown another NBA game for you guys & this week we’ll be doing the Dallas Mavericks vs the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are currently favored by 2.5 points while the total in this one has yet to posted at the time of writing due to injury news about Porzingis for the Mavericks side. Regardless of the news I expect this total to be somewhere in the high 230’s to 240’s while the short line seems to make me think we see Porzingis play tomorrow. The Nets will still be without Durant but will still have 2 of their big three in Irving & Harden. Dallas comes into this one winning six of their last 8 games going 3-5 ATS with the over going 5-3 in that span. The Nets on the other hand are riding an eight-game winning streak going 8-0 ATS & they split 4 games a piece on the total. Let’s jump into some stats and see how these team’s matchup recently.
Over the last five games the Nets are absolutely dominating teams on the offensive end carrying an OFF Rating of 122.2, an EFG % of 61.3% (both rank 2nd) and are scoring 121 points per game. The Nets were playing some of the worst defense in league history a few weeks ago but things seem to have changed on that end for Brooklyn as they hold a DEF rating of 109.8 (ranks 13th) and are holding teams to only 108 points per game on 48% shooting. With the firepower this team brings on the offensive end if they are going to start playing solid defense like how they’ve played recently this team is going to be really tough to beat. Dallas however carries an OFF rating of 117(ranks 6th) & an EFG % of 58% (ranks 5th) scoring 114 points per game in their last five. They take a slight dip on the defensive end in this span ranking 20th in Def rating (115.0) & are giving up 114 points per game on 47 % shooting. Based off these numbers Id slightly lean towards the nets side here but before we lock in a pick lets dig into some more numbers.
Looking into some more defensive stats these two teams have done a few things almost identical to each other but they also have a few spots where we see big differences. The Nets are only letting teams shoot 37% from three taking an average 34 attempts per game, the Mavericks 37% on 35 attempts. We look at rebounds Brooklyn’s giving up 40 rebounds per game while Dallas gives up 42 per game. Where we start to see these team separate each other is in the amount of free throws each team gives up. Brooklyn ranks 1st only giving up 15 free throw attempts per game. Dallas on the other hand ranks 15th giving up almost 22 free throws per game. In Non-Conference games this year Brooklyn is a whopping 11-3 ATS covering by an average of 8 points. The western teams they covered against this year GSW x2, Uta, Den, Okc, Lac x2, Sac x2, Phx & Lal. The three teams they couldn’t cover against were Memphis twice & Okc. Dallas on the other hand is 7-6 ATS vs the Eastern Conference with losses to Chi x2, Cha, Tor, Atl & Phi. Other than the 76ers none of those teams rank anywhere near the Nets at the moment. If this Nets team gets their offense rolling, I don’t think we’ll see Dallas be able to keep up unless Luka is playing out of his mind which is always possible with him.
Now before we make our pick one more nugget I found in this matchup. Versus teams in the Atlantic Division (Bkn,Phi,Tor,Ny,Bos) when having to travel north and play these teams Dallas is 2-9 in their last 9 trips to one of these 5 locations. The last time they won in Brooklyn came on March 19th 2017. Of the guys that Nets team put on the floor that night only one still remains a current rotation guy that being Joe Harris. The roster is astronomically better for the Nets in tonight’s game you have two superstars on their side now in Harden and Kyrie while Dallas will have their top guy in Doncic but we are still unsure if Porzingis will play or how effective he’ll be. With such a short line and it only being 2.5 points, I believe the Nets will be able to do enough on both ends to cover this spread and win by 5-10 pts. The uncertainty of Porzingis and the Defense the Nets have been playing are what pushed me to the Nets here if for some reason Porzingis doesn’t play this line will likely go up to -4.5 or maybe even -5. Getting in here at -2.5 I believe is the perfect spot lets lock it in & let’s keep running pure!
Article Pick: Nets -2.5 -110 Fanduel (posted last night)