Alright boys it’s that time of week again where we bring you an NBA-Breakdown of a specific game and today we will have Tyler breaking down the Mavericks 6.5-point favorites visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder. This will be the second leg of a back-to-back for the Mavs as they beat the Spurs 115-104. Now last time Tyler wrote up an article it was for the All-Star break and it brought home 12.45 units! Let’s see what spots he’s eyeing up in this one and lets cash some more tickets!
Dallas has been on a tear lately going 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS & they have been an under team in that span with games going 6-4 to the under. The Thunder on the other side stumbled into the All-Star break going 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS & the under is 7-3 in those games. They matched up against each other with that game ending with Dallas winning 87-78 without Luka who didn’t play that night. The total on that night closed around 220 and I believe we see them post the total right around that same number tonight. If we see this total anywhere above 216.5 ill be going under all day in this one as these two teams in their last 5 matchups have only scored 215+ once coming on 12/31/18 when OKC won 122-102.
Looking at the side in this one I lean OKC +6.5 as the Mav’s haven’t had much luck in the second half of back to backs this year. In those games this year Dallas is 2-4 SU & ATS with their two wins coming against the Rockets and Celtics. In those 6 games the Mavs have a MOV (margin of victory) of -11.5 pts and are failing to cover spreads in this spot by almost 12 pts. In both of those game Dallas only won by 3 pts but in their losses, they’ve dropped games in this spot by 23, 25, 6 & 31 points. The teams to beat them by 20+ pts were the Rockets, Raptors, Suns & Warriors. Of those teams only 1 holds their opponent to a lower FG% than the Thunder (Suns). The Thunder also hold their opponents to the lowest 3pt % of the teams talked about above.
We’ve touched on OKC’s defense now let’s talk about the Mavs, Dallas holds a Def Rating of 105.5 (only 0.03 behind OKC 105.2) and are holding teams to the lowest FG% in the league over the last 5 games (42.6%). They rank middle of the pack with opponent 3pt % ranking 16th (37%) & even worse in opponents’ turnovers 23rd (11.4). With OKC already being a limited team on the offensive end hearing about how this Dallas defense has played lately makes me love the under in this spot even more. Now before we lock in any picks, I wanted to talk about some props I will be looking to target.
As for props on the OKC side of course we all want to go right to our guy Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but his number seems a bit inflated here (Pts 25.5, Ast 6.5 & Rebs 5.5). Seeing this number makes me want to target his points prop under due to the fact Dallas is only letting PG’s score 20 ppg on 46% shooting over the last 2 weeks. SGA has also only topped this number twice in his last 5 games both happen to come against the Spurs. Both of those games Alexander couldn’t miss shooting 58/50/90 in their most recent matchup and 65/54/90 on 2/24. Due to these giant game’s vs the Spurs (33 & 42 pts) I think his pts prop was ticked up a point or two and it’s pushing me to be the under here. Another nugget I found SGA hasn’t topped 20 points in his last 3 matchups vs the Mavs he’s only scored 15,19 & 16 point. He also hasn’t shot well in this matchup shooting 33, 40 & 25 % in these 3 games.
Since we’ve touched on both sides of this game and looked at a prop spot I will be targeting let’s lock in some picks. With the defensive minded OKC on the floor I always love to target an under but when you add in a Dallas team playing solid defense lately it makes me love it even more. Now at the time of writing this article we have yet to see an official total posted in this one so we’ll be using a projected number for this one. Some sites are listing that this total will open around 219.5 which is 0.5 points less than their total from their most recent game that ended 87-78. With Luka likely playing tonight, Porzingis’s availability in these spots is always a mystery I’d say 219.5 seems right. With that being said ill be taking the full game under as long as this number is above 216.5, Doncic may show some fatigue after playing 39 mins the night before and dealing with a defender like Dort I think we see him have a below average shooting day while OKC keeps a low scoring defensive minded game close till the end and maybe even pulling out the W depending on the fatigue that effects the Mavs late in the second half tomorrow. Picks are listed below for everybody & we’ll be breaking down the entire NBA card on the Run Pure Bets YouTube channel. Join us to hear our thoughts on other games and let’s keep cashing these NBA Winners!
Dal/OKC Full Game Under (As long as its above 216.5)
OKC +6.5 -110
SGA Under 25.5 Points -110