TNF Best Bets – Week 7

Kyler Murray is almost 300 yards behind where he was last year entering Week 7. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

New Orleans Saints (+135) @ Arizona Cardinals (-145)

We finally have a Thursday Night Football matchup with teams that can actually score points. This should be a fun game.

This Arizona team has completely defiled expectations. They signed Kyler Murray to a crazy extension in the offseason, and his talents have fallen off a cliff. As a result, they enter Week 7 with a 2 – 4 record — 3 – 3 ATS. However, looking at their schedule, they very easily could rattle off wins the next three weeks and be back over .500. Plus, everyone in that division is underperforming, so their playoff chances are unaffected.

It’s still unclear who will start under center for the Saints this week. Winston has almost returned to full health, and neither quarterback has stood out this season performance-wise. Both are 1 – 2, and while Winston racked up more yards in his three games, he had five interceptions compared to Dalton’s one. 

At this point, it looks like the Cajun Carrot — as our man Spread likes to call him — will be starting, but that is subject to change in the coming hours. Given the uncertainty, I’m going to stay away from New Orleans offensive props. 

Kyler Murray has stepped up his running game over the past few weeks. After having 65 yards over the first three weeks, he broke off 168 yards in the last three games, including a 100-yard game on Sunday. His prop sits at 34.5 yards. The Cardinals may have trouble moving the ball through the air against this New Orleans defense, which should give Murray a chance to break off some runs.

Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Murray has thrown an interception in four of his last five games, but the Saints have just one interception all season. There’s no correlation between yards thrown and inceptions for Murray. So he can rack up passing yards tonight while avoiding an interception.

Kyler Murray Under 0.5 Interceptions (-105)

One more Murray prop for the people. The Bedford kid has completed 23 or more passes every week since Week 2. The Saints have a mid-tier pass defense, so that is trend bettors can expect to continue.

Kyler Murray Over 23.5 Pass Completions (-120)

The Cardinals have not been playing to their full potential all season, and the Saints are a total wild card. So I won’t make a winner prediction on this, but neither team has consistently lit up the scoreboard this year. Based on the inconsistent nature of how these teams play, one will blow out the other. One team will likely be held to under 14 points, so once again, on Thursday night, the under is the advisable move.

Under 44 Points (-110)

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