THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SHOWDOWN: TITANS AT STEELERS

Titans (16.5) AT Steelers (19.5)

QB

Will Levis comes off an incredible first game last week vs the Falcons. Levis 9.6K threw for 238 yards with 4 touchdowns and added in 11 yards on the ground. Levis showed this upside often at Kentucky and now will be asked to do it in his first road start vs a tough Steelers defense. I have a very hard time seeing him duplicate that performance we saw last week vs this pass rush but I still want some exposure to him in the Flex position tonight and will project him at around 14 DK points. Passing prop is 201.5 yards.

Kenny Pickett 9.2K is $400 cheaper than Levis but I think has less upside. Pickett has only scored more than 15 DK points once this year (18.5) vs the Raiders. Kenny has scored under 13 DK points in 5 games this year and even though the Titans are a pass funnel I want to be underweight on him tonight. He is a Flex play at best for me and I will project him for around 13 DK points. Passing prop is 216.5 yards.

RB

The Titans held pat with King Henry during the trade deadline and I think we see him get around 20 touches in this game similar to last week. King Henry has rushed for 97 and 101 yards the last 2 games and has been used in the passing game as well with 9 targets in the last 3 games. The price tag is high here at 11.6K but I will look to get overweight on him in both the Captain and Flex positions. Pittsburgh is giving up an average of 24.3 DK points to the RB position this year. Spears at 5.4K looks to be a solid mid-range value option tonight and should continue to see around 40% of the snaps. Rush/Rec props: Henry 89.5 and Spears 39.5 with Henry +135 to score a touchdown.

The Steelers have a pair of backs they will use tonight in Jaylen Warren 6.4K and Najee Harris 7.2K. The price tags on both of these backs feels a little high especially when you look at this Titans rush defense that has held the RB position under 16 DK points in 5 of 7 games with 3 of those games under 10 points. Najee Harris has only surpassed 11 DK points once this season scoring 15.8 vs the Rams and 4 games with 6 DK points or less. I will be underweight on Harris for sure but will be around the field on Warren who has scored 10+ DK points in 4 of his last 6 games. Rush/Rec props: Harris 58.5 yards and Warren 48.5 yards. Both are Flex only options for me tonight.

WR

I will look to target the pass catchers more so than the QBs tonight. I feel like both teams pass catchers have a great chance to outscore the QBs if this game does in fact play to a low score. DeAndre Hopkins is priced at 11.2K after his monster game last week. Three of Hopkins four catches last week went for touchdowns and we should see that regress quite a bit tonight. I still like Hopkins chances of putting up 10-15 DK points but would rather just jam Henry in at Captain over him tonight. I will give him a fair projection and see where he lands in the sims. Treylon Burks 3.8K is a guy that could break the slate tonight as he returned from injury last week to play half the snaps. Burks saw 2 targets last game but was unable to catch either pass. We should expect his snaps to rise tonight and we have seen the upside he can bring at times. He should come in around 20% or lower tonight and is a guy I want to be overweight on in the Flex and a sprinkle in the Captain spot. IF Burks Captain I will have Levis in the Flex spot. Westbrook-Ikhine 3.4K caught a touchdown last week and is a solid value option in the Flex tonight. Receiving props: Hopkins 54.5, Burks 24.5, and Westbrook 15.5 yards with Hopkins +205 to score a touchdown.

On the Pittsburgh side I think both Pickens 8.8K and Johnson 8.4K could both outscore Pickett off volume alone. Pickett is projected to see around 60% total ownership tonight and Pickens/Johnson are in the 40-50% range. If we get the low scoring game and both WR catches 5-7 balls tonight there is a good chance Pickett is not needed. Johnson has returned to be the volume WR catching 13 of 20 targets for 164 yards the last 2 games. Pickens has more upside with his average catch being 20+ yards and has went over 100+ yards in 2 of the last 3 games. I will have both in the Captain pool and want to be overweight in the Flex as well. Allen Robinson is a guy I will be underweight on or completely fading tonight but I do want some Calvin Austin at 1.8K. Austin has big upside for the price tag and caught a 72 yard TD vs the Raiders. Receiving Props: Johnson 58.5 and Pickens 52.5 with Pickens listed at +185 and Johnson +215 to score a touchdown.

TE

Chig Okonkwo has caught at least 2 passes in every game this year including 4 for 23 yards last week. We could see Levis go to him often as a safety valve for dump offs if the pass rush becomes a problem. I will be overweight on Chig at 4.2K in the Flex tonight. Prop for Chig is 24.5 yards and +450 to score.

With Pat Freiermuth out tonight, Connor Heyward 2.8K will fill the role and looks to be a strong value under 3K. Heyward has a 13% target share since the injury to Pat and has caught at least 2 passes in the last 3 games. Prop for Connor is 22.5 yards and +370 to score.

DEF/K

With a low total at 36.5 and a close spread of 3 points both kickers and defenses will be in play for me tonight in the Flex position. Nick Folk 4.6K is my preferred kicker with double digit points in 4 of the last 6 games. Boswell is priced higher at 5K but has scored 8+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 games. I rank the Steelers defense at 5.6K higher than the Titans with their strong pass rush vs Levis in his first road start. Pickett is not 100% and has taken at least 1 sack in every game this year for the Titans defense at 4.4K.

SNYDER MAIN CORE

Derrick Henry CAPT + Diontae Johnson + George Pickens 5.1K left per position

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