THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SHOWDOWN: SAINTS AT RAMS

Saints (20.5) AT Rams (24.5)

QB

Derek Carr is one of the cheaper QBs we have seen for showdown at 9K flat. Carr comes off one of his better fantasy games of the year hitting 20 DK points for the first time in 7 games throwing 3 TDs vs the Giants last week. The price tag makes him a solid Flex option and a guy we should be looking to target at around 50% in MME. Carr even hit the Captain spot in 3 of 150 builds in a base run using contest sims from Saber Sim. RAROI with 2 uniques were the settings used and he hit 42% of builds in the Flex spot. Carr has a passing prop of 236.5 yards tonight.

Stafford is priced at 10K flat and is averaging over 20 DK points in the last 4 games. Matt has been clean the last 3 games throwing 8 TDs to 0 INTs. Stafford has been great in the redzone this year throwing 15 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. This Saints defense has been great vs passing attacks this season only allowing 1 QB to earn 20+ DK points in the last 10 games. With that said the Rams at home are better than the teams they have been playing and have more weapons. Stafford hit the Captain in 3 of 150 using the Contest Sims but was the highest-owned option in the Flex at around 50%. I will be using Stafford in the Flex only but want to have 50%+ of him. Matt has a passing prop of 248.5 yards tonight.

RB

Alvin Kamara 10.8K has only been playing on around half the snaps of late. He should be asked to carry the load here in this important game the Saints need to keep their playoff hopes alive. He hasn’t hit the 100-yard bonus yet this year but the passing role keeps his floor high and does have a 30+ point upside. I will look to be around the field on him and splash him in the Captain spot. Kamara hit the Captain at a 9% rate in the base Sims run and 45% in the Flex. Jamaal Williams continues to see around 22-27 snaps each week but has not been effective with his best game being 4.8 DK points. I think he should be priced closer to 3K than 4.2K and will most likely be underweight on him in the Flex. Kamara has a rush/rec prop of 89.5 yards and is +112 to score a touchdown.

Kyren Williams has been a guy I have been targeting since his return. I look to once again get overweight on him in both the Captain and Flex spots. Williams holds the slate high price tag of 11.2K and hit the Captain spot at 32% rate in the Sims and 37% in the Flex. I will look to play him at around 35% in the Captain as I expect his ownership to be around 20% and this will allow me to be well overweight the field. Williams has a rush/rec prop of 115.5 yards tonight and is the slate favorite to score at -205.

WR

Chris Olave is expected to return this week with an enticing price tag of 8.6K. Olave is a great showdown Captain with his strong upside. Olave should continue to see around 8 to 9 targets in the passing game especially if this game shoots out. Olave hit the 2nd most in the Sims for the Captain at 16% and was 35% in the Flex. He is projected to be around 10% in the Captain so the Sims suggest he is a strong Captain option. Big Mike Thomas is still out and this should push more work to Rashid Shaheed who is another big play threat. 7K flat is a little steep but he still makes a solid leverage Captain option. At the Colts Rashid put up 27 DK points and could pop off again here tonight. Shaheed hit the Captain on 6 teams out of 150 in the Sims and I will also splash him a little in the Captain but will be around 15-20% in the Flex. A.T. Perry and Lynn Bowden are good cheap Flex options and I will be sprinkling them into builds. Receiving props are Olave 62.5, Shaheed 33.5, Perry 13.5, and Bowden 9.5 yards. Olave is +185 to score and Shaheed is +340.

Cooper Kupp is priced at 11K and is off a pair of 28 DK point games. He has now caught a touchdown in 3 straight games and hit the 100-yard bonus in back-to-back games. Kupp is a great Captain option but should get overlooked some with Kyren the main Captain option. Kupp is projected to be around 10-13% in the Captain and hit the Sims at 10%. I will be bumping Kupp’s projection to get more of him in the Captain tonight. Puka is priced at 9.6K and has a similar upside for 1.4K cheaper and I feel more people will gravitate towards him. The Sims agree as well with him coming in at 14% in the Captain but lower in the Flex at only 22%. Tutu Atwell looks to return to this game and should share a role with Demarcus Robinson. Atwell is much cheaper at 2.8K vs the 5.4K of Robinson which should make Robinson the better GPP target. They both hit at around 10% in the Flex for the Sims. Receiving props are Kupp 69.5, Puka 62.5, Atwell 11.5, Robinson 23.5 yards. Kupp is +120 to score and Puka is +135 to score.

TE

Taysom Hill 6.6K looks to be a great GPP target tonight with a low projected ownership of around 15%. We have seen the Taysom games and his multiple TD upside. I will have a sprinkle of him in the Captain and overweight in the Flex spot as well. Jimmy Graham is a great GPP option with his boom/bust TD upside and priced at only 1.6K. Graham will be looking for his 4th straight game with a TD tonight. Johnson is an upside Flex option as well at 4K flat. Taysom is +222 to score a touchdown tonight.

Tyler Higbee is priced a little rich at 5.8K when I think he should be closer to the 4.5K range. Higbee has only had 1 game with more than 12 DK points and looks to be a fade for me tonight but I will see if he hits will a lower projection. Higbee only hit on 6% of builds in the Sims looking at the Flex spot. Tyler has a prop of 22.5 yards tonight.

DEF/K

The defenses tonight are fairly priced at 3.4K and 3.8K. I will be fading the Rams defense as they haven’t scored more than 5 DK points in the last 5 games and only twice this year. The Saint’s defense can get pressure and rack up sacks as they have 11 in the last 2 games. I will have a slight interest in them tonight. Both kickers are under 5K and firmly in play as I expect to see some points in this game.

SNYDER MAIN CORE

Kyren Williams CAPT + Matt Stafford + Blake Grupe 6.2K left per position

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