THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SHOWDOWN: PANTHERS AT BEARS

Panthers (16.5) AT Bears (20.5)

QB

Bryce Young travels to Chicago on a short week to face the Bears off one of his worst games of the year. Young threw 3 interceptions last week vs the Colts and has been held under 15 DK points in all but 1 game this year. The 9.8K price tag is tough I think there is a good chance he does not make the optimal and I will be even to underweight on him in the Flex position only tonight. Young has a pass/rush prop of 228.5 yards and is only hitting on 4% of Sims in the Captain position on a base run.

Tyson Bagent is priced at $600 less than Young and holds more upside based on his mobility. Bagent rushed for 70 yards last week but has struggled in that department this year making him viable for the Captain position. Bagent hit the Captain spot in just over 8% of the Sims in a base run using Risk-Adjusted ROI on 5000 Sims. I will be overweight on him in the Flex position and around the 10% range in the Captain spot tonight. Tyson has a pass/rush prop of 215.5 yards.

RB

Chuba Hubbard 8K and Miles Sanders 5.2K head the Panthers rushing attack.  Hubbard looks to have taken over the bell cow role since Sanders missed the Miami game a few weeks ago. Hubbard has a 57.5 rush/rec prop compared to Sanders at 36.5 but Sanders is highly juiced to the over at -150. Hubbard is hitting the Captain spot in the Sims at 17% vs Sanders at 2%. I will be playing Hubbard in both spots but I do think Sanders is interesting in the Flex at around 15%.

On the Bears side, I think we see a heavy dose of D’Onta Foreman this week as the Bears have leaned on 1 RB in positive game scripts. Foreman has a fair price tag at 8.6K carried the ball 20 times last week for 83 yards and has seen work in the pass game. Roschon Johnson should play around 30% of the snaps again and is fine for the Flex spot tonight. Foreman was hitting the Captain spot 16% of the time in the base run Sims. Rush/rec props are Foreman 73.5 yards and Johnson 32.5 yards with Foreman as the slate favorite to score a touchdown at +115.

WR

DraftKings priced up Adam Thielen to 11.8K tonight and I don’t mind it as we will need raw points tonight and have enough value. Thielens’ production has dropped off the last 2 weeks after a strong start to the year only catching 5 for 29 yards last week. Thielen was hitting the Captain spot at the highest rate but I think I will be underweight on him in the Captain spot at around 10-15%. DJ Chark is out tonight and Jonathan Mingo priced at 2.8K should be forced to step up. Mingo has 3+ catches in 4 of the last 6 games. I will be overweight on him in both the Captain and Flex positions. Terrace Marshall at $400 is a fine punt as well. Receiving yard props: Thielen 67.5, Mingo 32.5, and Marshall 26.5 yards.

I will not be as high on the Bears passing attack as I will be the rushing attack tonight. I still will have some exposure to DJ Moore slightly in the Captain and in the Flex for raw points. Darnell Mooney is 3.2K cheaper and has more total DK points than Moore in the last 2 weeks combined. I think Mooney is a solid large field Captain and I will be overweight on him in the Flex. Scott, St. Brown, and ESB are fine punt options but I won’t have more than 5% of any and will set a rule for MAX-1 of them. Receiving props: Moore 54.5, Mooney 29.5, and Scott 5.5 yards.

TE

The price tag on Hayden Hurst seems high here at 4.8K and Tommy Tremble at 2.4K is taking away usage from Hurst. I will be under on Hurst tonight and slightly over on Tremble for 2.4K cheaper. Hurst has a 16.5-yard prop and Tremble is 9.5 yards.

Cole Kmet is priced at 6.6K which looks like a great play on paper but Big T was talking about this being a bad matchup for him. Kmet will be popular at around 40-50% total ownership and is a spot you can get different by underprojecting him. Kmet has been the main target of Bagent catching 16 of 18 targets in the last 2 games and I will go to him again tonight. Kmet hit the Captain spot at a 10% rate in the Base Sims run. The Yardage prop for Kmet is 35.5 yards and +200 to score.

DEF/K

I think both of these defenses are bad and will be underweight on both of them for around 5 DK points. I will be slightly overweight on the kickers though as this projects to be an ugly game and these teams could easily stall out in FG range. Santos is 5K and Pineiro is 4.4K and I will have them both at around 20-30%.

SNYDER MAIN CORE

D’Onta Foreman (CAPT) + Cole Kmet + Jonathan Mingo 9.2K left per position

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