THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SHOWDOWN: JAGUARS AT SAINTS

Jaguars (19.5) AT Saints (20.5)

QB

There is a lot of optimism from reporters that Trevor Lawrence 9.6K will be able to be under center in Thursday’s matchup. Lawrence is nursing a knee injury and if able to go you have to like the sub 10K price tag. The downside is that he will not be 100% and likely not scrambling as much if any. Trevor is averaging 22.2 rushing yards per game and has only scored 20 points once this season. He would be a Flex-only option for me if able to go. DraftKings did a good job of pricing up his backup Beathard to 8.6K. T-Law doesn’t have any props listed at the time of writing this.

Derek Carr has a very tempting price tag of only 8.8K and is most likely a lock for cash games in the Flex position. Carr has had some rough games this year but does come off his best game of the season passing for 353 yards and hitting 20+ DK points for the first time this year. He threw the ball 50 times in last week’s game and I have a hard time seeing him do that again and should be closer to 35 attempts in this matchup. The passing prop for Carr is 238.5 yards.

RB

We have a couple of strong options at the running back position tonight. Etienne has been one of the NFL’s true bellcows. Etienne has 20+ touches in 4 straight games and has scored twice in his last 2 games. 17.8+ DK points in 4 of 6 games this season with a high of 39 points vs the Bills in London. Etienne will be a priority for me on this slate in both the Captain and Flex positions. Travis has a rush/rec prop of 88.5 and is even money to score a touchdown.

Alvin Kamara leads the slate with a price of 10.4K and I think we are getting a great value on both of these backs. Kamara has 20+ touches in all 3 games played this year and holds elite pass game usage with 25 targets. We know Carr loves to check it down and I think we see him catch at least 6 passes in this game on the fast track. Kendre Miller makes for a Flex GPP dart throw at 1.8K. Alvin has a rush/rec prop of 86.5 and is +105 to score a touchdown.

WR

Calvin Ridley is priced at 8.4K tonight and is an Elite Captain option. There is a chance that he sees Marshon Lattimore often but Lattimore has only shadowed at a 40% rate this season. Ridley has the talent and upside to beat any DB in the league and is ready to erupt. Calvin has 2 games of 23+ DK points this year. Christian Kirk 8K has been consistently putting up 13-17 points in 4 of his last 5 games with 1 game at 24 DK points. Kirk found the endzone for the second time last year and is someone Trevor is looking at often. Kirk leads the team in target share and has a 5 to 2 advantage over Ridley in the RedZone. The Saints have been beaten often by slot WRs this year and Kirk is also a great Captain/Flex option tonight. Zay Jones 3.4K is questionable and we need to monitor this news. If Jones is out, we have Jamal Agnew at only $400 who played on 20 of 64 snaps last week, however, he did not register a stat. In week 3 Agnew caught 4 for 49 yards. Receiving props – Ridley 51.5 yards and Kirk 51.5 yards. Ridley is +185 to score and Kirk is +240.

On the Saints side of the ball, Chris Olave leads the team priced at 9K flat. Olave has double-digit targets in 4 of 6 games this season and has 80+ yards in those 4 games. He has only found the endzone once this season but holds a 25+ point upside. The Jags have been beatable through the air this season and I like Olave in both Captain and Flex. Big Mike Thomas has a tag of 7K flat and meshes well with how Carr likes to move the ball down the field. Thomas is averaging over 7 targets per game but I lean to play him more so in the Flex unless it looks like his ownership will be down at the Captain position. He has 50+ yards and 4+ catches in every game but hasn’t found the box yet. Rashid Shaheed 5K is a great upside option for both Captain and Flex. He is a deep threat option that has 3 40+ yard catches with 2 of them going for touchdowns. He is fully liable for putting up 4 or 25 DK points making him a great GPP option. Receiving props – Olave 61.5, Thomas 52.5, and Shaheed 34.5 yards. Olave is +185 to score, Thomas is +240, and Shaheed is +320.

TE

Even Engram has a great price tag here at 5.8K for the volume he has, averaging 6 catches per game. Engram is another Jag that is yet to find the endzone and uncap his upside. He is averaging 11 DK points per game and will be a guy I have on nearly all teams. Engram has a prop of 43.5 yards and is +300 to score.

For the Saints, they are left with Taysom Hill at 6.2K and Foster Moreau at 3.2K. Hill is priced a little too high for me but always holds that upside around the goal line to rush one. We could see Hill do it all in the matchup from passing, rushing, and receiving. Foster Moreau found the endzone vs the Pats and caught all 4 targets last week vs the Texans.

DEF/K

We have a lower total of 40 for this matchup and Lawrence is not 100% and Carr is liable to turn it over. I will be around the field on both defenses in the matchup. Blake Grupe and Brandon McManus have shown double-digit DK point upside multiple times this year and I will be overweight on both kickers.

SNYDER MAIN CORE

Big Mike Thomas CAPT + Evan Engram + Brandon McManus 9.6K left per position

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