Buccaneers (16.5) AT Bills (26.5)


Baker Mayfield 9.2K travels up to Buffalo to meet a Buffalo team off a bad loss to New England. After a solid start to the season, the Bucs have lost 2 straight and Baker has not looked good in either matchup. I don’t want anything to do with Baker here in this spot traveling on a short week to Buffalo. I will be underprojecting him and setting my MAX ownership to 20% if he even hits with the projection. Mayfield has a passing prop of 228.5 yards.

I think we see a big rebound here from Allen here in this good matchup at home. Josh hasn’t played that well recently but still has 26+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games and we could see a 40 spot from him in this spot tonight. He scored 39.5 in a big home win vs the Dolphins a few weeks back. The 11.8K price tag is high but I want to be overweight on him in the Captain and Flex positions. Allen has a pass/rush prop of 287.5 yards and is +135 to score a touchdown.


Rachaad White is priced high for this matchup at 8K flat. This is a big price tag for a guy who has only scored over 15 DK points once this season and has been at 10 or less in 4 of 6 games. White looks to be an easy fade for me tonight but I will project him at around 10 points. Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s $600 makes for a nice large field GPP option near the min price. Vaughn’s snaps increased last week and I think he could see 5-8 touches in this game. White has a rush/rec prop of 72.5 yards.

I have been high on James Cook leading up to the season and in certain matchups. I think this is a great spot for him to break out. I think Cook will be lower owned as he is splitting snaps with Lat Murry and has a of 8.6K. He found the endzone last week and is +120 to score tonight. Lat Murry just doesn’t have the upside and is priced at 4.8K. He hasn’t scored more than 5 points in the last 3 games and I will under project him tonight. Rush/rec props are Cook 73.5 and Murray 35.5 yards. If Vita Vea who hasn’t practiced misses this game it will give a good bump to the rushing attack.


Mike Evans has a price tag of 10K flat here and I will have a hard time fitting him in many builds as I want to be overweight on Allen and Diggs. Evans has the upside to break a slate but hasn’t shown it as of late. He scored less than 10 DK points in 2 of his last 3 games and I will be underweight on him. Chris Godwin has a better price tag at 7.8K and I would rather go in his direction for a Bucs pass catcher. Godwin has 30 targets in his last 3 games and has scored double-digit points in 5 of 6 games. Godwin will be a Flex option for me tonight. Thompkins has caught 2 or more passes in 4 straight games and at 1.6K he will be in my Flex pool. Palmer is an upside large field GPP option at 4.2K. Receiving yard props are Evans 56.5, Godwin 55.5, and Palmer 16.5.

Like Allen, I think we see Diggs get back on track here and post a strong stat line. The 11.4K price tag is high but I still want to jam him in both the Captain and Flex positions. Diggs only scored 17.8 DK points last week which was the first time he posted less than 22 in the 4 games prior. Diggs has found the endzone 6 times this year and is the slate favorite to score at -125. Gabe Davis is always a great upside target in this offense and is a little underpriced tonight at 6.8K. I will be jamming in the Allen doubles a lot tonight. Davis and Rachaad White’s prices should be swapped but we will take the savings. Davis was held to only 1 catch last week but has found the endzone 4 times this year and should bounce back in this plus matchup. Both Shakir and Harty are fine GPP targets for the Flex position. Receiving props are Diggs 86.5 and Davis 41.5.


Cade Otton has a cheap tag of 3K flat tonight. Otton is my second favorite pass catcher from Tampa in a good matchup vs a Bills defense that has given up 8+ points to the tight end position in the last 5 games. Cade has a receiving prop of 25.5 yards.

With the injury to Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid will be forced to step up big as the TE3 Quintin Morris will also miss. Kincaid might be the most underpriced option on this slate at only 5K flat. Kincaid stepped up big last week catching all 8 targets for 75 yards and I think Allen leans on him again. Kincaid will be in a lot of my Allen doubles and some full onslaughts. Kincaid has a good prop of 40.5 yards only 1 yard shy of Davis.


The Tampa defense at 3.6K doesn’t look like a good play on paper but Allen has been known to take sacks and turn the ball over so I will still have them in my pool. The Bills defense isn’t full strength but is facing the mistake-prone Baker Mayfield and only 4.4K so I will be slightly overweight on them. Both Kickers are firmly in play for me tonight as well.


Josh Allen CAPT + Stefon Diggs + Dalton Kincaid 5.3K left per position


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