THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SHOWDOWN: BENGALS AT RAVENS

Bengals (20.5) AT Ravens (24.5)

QB

Joey B heads to Baltimore to face the NFL’s top defense in a major divisional battle on a short week. Burrow will be without WR2 Tee Higgins but Ja’Marr Chase should be a full go. The Ravens are allowing the lowest yards per pass attempt and I expect this to be a close lower-scoring battle. After a slow start to the season due to injury, Burrow has looked much better the last few weeks scoring 24+ DK in his last 3 games. The Raven’s defense has only allowed 1 QB to score 20+ DK points on them this year. I wouldn’t play him in the Captain position but I would look to get at least 45%+ in the Flex spot. Burrow has a pass/rush prop of 273.5 yards.

Lamar Jackson’s 10.8K looks to bounce back after another collapse down the stretch after losing to the Browns last week. Jackson threw a pick 6 late and only completed 13 passes. We know the ceiling he possesses but have only seen it a time or two this year. 3 straight games of 15 or fewer DK points should cap his ownership at least in the Captain spot. The one good thing that Lamar has done this year is giving us a solid rushing floor as he has 36+ rushing yards in 8 of 10 games this year with 5 rushing touchdowns. I expect to see Lamar shine in this spot similar to what he did vs Detroit in that home showdown. I will be overweight on Lamar in the Captain and Flex spot with his cheap price tag as he is typically in the 11-12K range. LJ has a pass/rush prop of 273.5 and is +130 to score a touchdown.

RB

Joe Mixon was in a great spot last week and was only able to score 12.5 DK points. Mixon is priced way too high for this matchup and is the worst play on the board in my opinion. I would project him for around 11-14 points tonight with a narrow chance to reach 17–20-point range. I will not be fully fading him rather just under-projecting him and seeing if he hits any of the sims. Mixon has a rush/rec prop of 78.5 yards and is -105 to score a touchdown.

The Ravens have a few options at the RB position with the rise of Keaton Mitchell. Mitchell is a burner and has scored long touchdowns in both games he has played. Given he has only played 13 and 14 snaps in the two games I think we see the Ravens bump his usage and should overtake Justice Hill’s role. Hill saw a big drop in snaps and usage last week going from playing in the 30-40 snap range to only 14 snaps vs Cleveland. The price tag of 2.8K still warrants flex consideration as he could find the endzone. Finally, the Gus Bus has been riding high on the touchdown variance the last 4 games finding the endzone 7 times. I expect him to see the high usage touches and goal-line work still but project him to play at around 50-60% of the snaps. Edwards needs to be in consideration for the Captain position based on his usage over the last 4 games. Rush/rec props for Gus is 49.5 and Mitchell has the same prop at 49.5 which makes me really like Mitchell more at 5.6K. Gus is -105 to score a touchdown and Keaton is +210.

WR

Ja’Marr Chase is debatably the best pass catcher in the league and Marlon Humphries is questionable to play. Chase leads the slate with an 11K price tag. Chase has had solid success vs the Ravens scoring 8, 23, 22, 12, 22, and 37 in the last 6 games played vs Baltimore. I would expect double-digit targets his way in this near must-win game. Boyd is priced at 6.8K which is the highest price for him this year in showdown. I think Boyd is a solid flex option for GPPs as he should be able to score in the 8-14 point range with upside. Irwin is all the way up to 4.4K and holds limited upside even though he did catch the long TD early last week. I would rather mix in the Bengals tight ends or kickers in that range. Receiving props: Chase 82.5, Boyd 45.5, and Irwin 35.5 yards. Chase is +110 to score a touchdown.

The pass catchers on the Raven’s side of the ball are tougher pinpoint. Zay Flowers at 7.6K hasn’t shown the big upside yet this year as he has been under 80 yards in every game with only 1 touchdown. He should be a solid bet to at least reach double-digit points and does hold the upside to break a long one-off. He’s a large-field GPP captain option. OBJ has now scored in back-to-back games but only caught the 1 pass last week. I expect him to once again see around 4-7 targets with solid upside for the 5.2K price tag. Bateman has 2+ catches in his last 5 games but is at best a GPP flex option. Agholor is a GPP punt option if you need the salary but would only play him if I had Lamar Captain I think. Receiving props: Flowers 52.5, Beckham 26.5, Bateman 28.5, and Agholor 7.5 yards. Flowers is +205 to find the endzone.

TE

Cincy has a trio of tight ends to pick from. Irv Smith played 21/64 snaps and caught 1 pass. Tanner Hudson played 20 snaps and was the key focus catching 6 of 7 targets for 33 yards at 2.6K. Drew Sample played the most snaps at 23 and caught 2 of 3 targets for 12 yards and is a viable punt at only $400. I will be setting a rule for Max 1 of these tight ends. Props are Smith 13.5 yards and  Hudson 20.5 yards and I lean with the books and $400 savings of Hudson as my favorite option.

Mark Andrews has underwhelmed for most of the season with only 2 games of 20+ DK points. This is a big spot similar to the Detroit game where Lamar should lean on him early and often. Andrews is yet to record more than 80 yards receiving. The Bengals have given up 11+ DK points in all but one game this year to the position and 27 to George Kittle. Andrews is a Captain option for me and I will be overweight in the Flex spot. Andrews has a prop of 55.5 yards and is +145 to score a touchdown.

DEF/K

The Bengals defense is priced fairly at 3.6K and has 11 interceptions in the last 7 games with at least 1 sack as well. The Ravens defense has scored 12+ points in 3 of the last 4 games and has 9 interceptions in their last 7 games. Baltimore has 33 sacks in the last 8 games and Burrow has taken 3+ sacks in 5 of his last 6 games. Both defenses are solid Flex plays as well as both kickers. Both of these kickers are fully liable to score double-digit points if this is a tough divisional battle.

SNYDER MAIN CORE

Keaton Mitchell (CAPT) + Lamar Jackson + Ja’Marr Chase 6.1K left per position

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