Congrats to those of you who had success yesterday! It was a fun day for RPS and we will look to continue it! The only thing that really killed me was England being so passive in the attack, it made for an unenjoyable watch and they played down to the level of their competition and looked greatly handicapped in the attack and did not utilize any of their player’s strengths. Today though probably has the most name brand sides that can be imagined on a group stage slate. We have Germany, France, Portugal, and Spain all facing off, and that’s not even including Robert Lewandowski’s side. The rambunctious crowd of Budapest will make the France-Hungary match so enjoyable and I am greatly excited for the slate we have on hand.
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Hungary (+1200) vs France (-400)
Both Teams To Score: +150
Probable Set Piece Takers: Laszlo Kleinseisler, Roland Sallai (HUNGARY) / Antoine Griezmann (FRANCE)
Portugal (+230) vs Germany (+125)
Both Teams To Score: -125
Probable Set Piece Takers: Bruno Fernandes, (PORTUGAL) / Tooni Kroos, Joshua Kimmich (GERMANY)
Spain (-300) vs Poland (+850)
Both Teams To Score: +110
Probable Set Piece Takers: Koke, Thiago (SPAIN) / Piotr Zieliński (POLAND)
With such firepower on this slate, it’ll be important to get things right. Right off the bat I can tell you I won’t have any exposure to Poland or Hungary outside maybe just maybe a punt defender. Immediately chalking off 33% of the slate and focusing on the favorites and high total sides. Goals will be scored with massive favorites in Spain and France. We can make plenty of Spain not scoring with 85% of the ball against Sweden but I’ll be damned if I do not lock up Gerard Moreno and dubbing the Spanish forward as the first Picnic Play of The Day. The discount of him at just 8K spearing the attack with the service that should have seen Alvaro Morata slot at least one against the Swedes.
There is going to be quite a bit of ownership and rightfully so in Spain and France but like I keep saying and to those who took it down today, it doesn’t take much to be different in soccer. One play can put you over the top and building around these favorites is all you need to do. Just keep it simple is what I say to myself. I sadly am working an open tomorrow at Verizon so won’t be able to get in more than a few minutes of time to build, but preparing tonight I can tell you I will be playing mostly all France and Spain in my lineups. Paul Pogba in the mid-tier price range immediately jumps off the page after his incredibly impressive performance against Germany. He now gets a matchup where he will be all around the box and ready to pounce. Sticking in the 5K midfield range, we have a plethora of Spanish options with Thiago, Marcos Llorente, and Koke. All these guys have good potential and upside. Llorente moving from right back into the midfield will be a benefit to keep an eye on and could be fairly sharp as he has quite the nose for goal.
Antoine Griezmann will be my main guy tomorrow, all the sets and the amazing matchup and set up a couple chances against the Germans, he will have the safest floor and supreme upside. As for the rest of France, I can’t fault anyone for opting for Kylian Mbappe or Karim Benzema. They combined on a goal that was ruled for offside but showed how dangerous they can be in the attack and the lack of substitutions by Didier Deschamps was refreshing to see.
Germany and Portugal will be an interesting match with both teams expected to score. However the German front three has extremely high sub risk and potentially a very short leash after the underwhelming nature in which they performed just a few days ago. Kai Havertz and Serge Gnabry both being priced in a range where they make you think a little bit. Both got subbed early but did show a couple looks for goal. Thomas Muller is cheaper than Serge Gnabry and offers a more secure route of minutes. He also came very close to scoring last match. With Joshua Kimmich listed as a defender again on FanDuel, his potential role in the midfield could be awesome to take advantage of on a site where crosses aren’t as important. I may change my strategy slightly on FanDuel and focus on going defenders on favored sides and trying to land the clean sheet bonus and potential role in set pieces. Punting underdog options is still more than a viable strategy, but each slate seems like it hasn’t made much of a difference and sacrifices a little bit of upside. Toni Kroos took most of the set pieces last game when Germany allowed time for him to walk over for the corner and with Portugal likely to sit back, he is a very strong play on DraftKings.
Lastly I want to touch up on Portugal a little bit. The defenders will have the best game logs of anyone in the bunch, but will sit back quite a bit against Germany and look to take advantage on the counter, I will be staying away from them, with slight focus on Diogo Jota who at 7.1K was Portugal’s best threat at goal in the first half and with Germany struggling defensively at times could be a real low owned tournament play. Bruno Fernandes took most of the set pieces but the floor will be a bit weaker here. I will be staying away from Cristiano Ronaldo here and hope he gets ownership, price tag is fine, just the matchup here isn’t as good as the others.
Defender will be tough today on DraftKings. I will be punting one spot for certain and may include that player in my core, so just keep an eye, but it is a difficult slate in this regard and will be interesting to see how people treat it. We all saw the success of Jordi Alba last game when Spain were chasing the win, but that’s not as repeatable as usual, and none of these guys really have an amazing floor, not even Joshua Kimmich. I think this will be the position that ownership is most spread out upon and will hopefully be able to pitch in building up to lock.
Thank you for reading, and good luck!