Back with the article today, after an action packed Sunday. We got some of the biggest teams with France, Switzerland, Croatia, and of course Spain on the slate today. A day of the Euros isn’t enough though, we also got Wimbledon on the dock! Suzy has our content and will have it all tournament long. EUROS25 the Promo Code we have going on right now, and you don’t just get the Euros. You get Copa America, you get NBA, you get Tennis, you get our fire PGA content with our guy Snyder shipping 15K this past tournament!! You get it all, 25% off your purchase, enough dilly-dally, let’s get to work!
Croatia (+550) vs Spain (-167)
Both Teams To Score: +110
Probable Set Piece Takers: Luka Modric (CROATIA) / Koke, Pablo Sarabia (SPAIN)
Switzerland (+550) vs France (-167)
Both Teams To Score: +110
Probable Set Piece Takers: Ricardo Rodriguez, Xherdan Shaqiri (SWITZERLAND) / Antoine Griezmann (FRANCE)
Today we are going to focus not on the favorites like Spain and France, but where we can get the value within the other sides. Both games likely don’t have both teams to score as it is in the + odds and that’s on Bet365 where we don’t get the most favorable odds. Both teams have the exact same odds of getting through the match and will make this slate much more different than the one we had Sunday.
When we glance back upon Spain’s performances this tournament, it’s easy to be critical of their lack of success in front of the net through the first pair of games before they exploded in the last one. Quietly however their defense has been extremely solid. The one goal they leaked was to the best goalscorer on the planet the past year in Robert Lewandowski. Through the group stage they conceded only 12 shots, allowed 9 crosses, and have out possessed the opponent with over 70% of the ball in all three matches combined. Going against this team, the one thing that no player has is floor. It’s non-existent against the Spainiards. They’ve been able to concede goals in the past though, in the first game against Sweden, Marcus Berg missed a big chance and a clearance off the line by Marcos Llorente allowed Spain to hold a clean sheet and showed they are vulnerable as we saw Robert Lewandowski really emphasize in game 2. We can also look leading into the tournament where they conceded in six of their last eight matches heading into Euros. We can have a little bit of confidence and reason looking to Croatia for a goal. The big news that we have now seen with Croatia is Ivan Perisic out and isolated from the team after testing positive for COVID-19. That’s a big blow to them, but we still have plenty of attacking talent in the likes of Nikola Vlasic, Bruno Petkovic, and Ante Rebic likely leading the line, with maybe Andrej Kramaric filling in for the latter two. Vlasic scored the opening goal in the last match against Scotland and has been a threat in the attack for Croatia when given the time and scored against top level teams like France not too long ago. These guys will all come in fairly low owned for a two game slate and will be tournament targets only. Luka Modric comes in more expensive than I can really go for. He will not have the floor against Spain and will be fairly reliant on a goal which I’d rather go for the front three in that case at less ownership, he will however take penalties and as we all know that can derail a slate.
France got first in the group but did so rather in skittish fashion. They parked the bus against Germany and did enough for the win but didn’t look exactly like World Champs, only to follow it up with draws against Hungary and Portugal where they just didn’t show a ton of promise and conceded three goals in the process. I also love Switzerland’s talent with the likes of Breel Embolo impressing in the opener and we all saw Xherdan Shaqiri get on the board twice with a brace against Turkey and seeing Switzerland get into form a little bit after their beating they suffered at the hands of Italy. We would have to think Switzerland rolls out the same squad though against France which saw Ricardo Rodriguez reduced from his wingback role and move further back in the attack as part of the back three. Steven Zuber took his spot and ended with three assists and was part of the reason why Switzerland were so sharp. Haris Seferovic missed several big chances in Switzerland’s matches of late. Him scoring a very clinical goal from the outside of the box instills a bit of confidence which is always important for a striker. Obviously though France is no slouch and very different than a defeated Turkish side. France conceded twice to Portugal with both goals coming from the spot after Hugo Lloris’s anime style punch and Jules Koude’s handball were the infringements that led to the goals. Despite the talent of Switzerland exciting me, France has been good defensively in the last calender year and facing top-tier competition in the Nations League quite often. France has kept a clean sheet in eight of their last 16 matches which is when international play resumed after the halt due to the pandemic.
Easy to get excited by both sides and convincing yourself it is possible like I do all the time, but the fact of the matter is, neither Switzerland or Croatia are expected to score really. The simplest way of looking at this slate despite having almost identical odds across the board is that Croatia will be good to target strictly the goalscorers, while Switzerland will be better in cash for the third team exposure with better floors but slightly less of a chance of making the clean sheet of Lloris’s stained.
Good luck everyone let’s ship it!