HAPPY FATHER’S DAY! I celebrated early last week and some of you noted that for me, but this week, 100% Happy Father’s Day. Make sure to wish our very own Jaime a wonderful Father’s Day himself as well as he will be grinding the soccer with us. Germany-Portugal turned out to be an absolute bash, up and down action the entire match with Portugal finding the net four times en route to their 4-2 loss. With France looking unimpressive in their draw against Hungary while Spain is still winless in these Euros through two matches. Just absolute mayhem yesterday and filled with many storylines. Gerard Moreno absolutely mashed it yesterday but loved missing his half chances and even the penalty to cause me pain, today will be fun. We have a two game slate before we start a collection of four game slates as the group stage is coming to an end. The matches mostly starting at the same time will cause less of a headache as well and make for a much more fun experience.
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MATCHES
Italy (-175) vs Wales (+700)
Both Teams To Score: +140
Location: Rome, Italy
Probable Set Piece Takers: Federico Bernadeschi (ITALY) / Daniel James (WALES)
Switzerland (-140) vs Turkey (+400)
Both Teams To Score: -140
Location: Baku, Azerbaijan
Probable Set Piece Takers: Xherdan Shaqiri, Ricardo Rodriguez (SWITZERLAND) / Hakan Calhanoglu, Cengiz Under (TURKEY)
Italy will be pretty heavy in the squad rotations. There could be 8 or 9 players rotated from the squad with only Gianluigi Donnarumma and Jorginho taking part in the starting lineup that started either of the first two matches. Donnarumma will be major chalk at the goalkeeping position and could get north of 40% ownership on this slate, possibly higher due to Italy’s defense and record over the past few years.
Marco Verratti will get the nod in the midfield and I caution using him as he is still working back from injury and despite the favorable price tag is highly likely to be subbed off early making my interest in him substantially less than the others.
Federico Bernadeschi is an absolute lock. I make that all bold for you guys. It’s not a sneaky play or anything like that, it’s just the fact that he will take almost all set pieces and provide heavy involvement in the fiercest of Italy’s attacks. He is the top guy for me on the slate.
Emerson on the Italian left filling in for Leonardo Spinnazolla will be a popular play at the defender position. He has plenty of ability getting forward and making things happen and is priced under 5K on DraftKings making him very nice here.
Matteo Pessina at 4K could get the start on the wing, the ownership will likely be high due to positioning and he is genuinely very good with Atalanta, nice salary saving option. Spearing the attack will be Andrea Belotti as well filling in for Ciro Immobile and pouncing on the chances sent his way.
We have talked lots about Italy but for good reason, they are the chalk team that many will gravitate to. There is plenty of merit in fading Donnarumma and going for a clean sheet in the other match or even banking on a Wales victory. Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey looked incredible last match and will be decent shouts at tournament play due to their sheer ability for the national team. Daniel James looked very strong starting the match against Turkey, with the rotated squad, the case for the Italians being able to hold a bit less of the possession could be made, and 6.1K on DraftKings is a fine price for James. Outside of those three, I don’t have a ton of interest, Kieffer Moore looked good both games but the upside on him is grim and a goal from him would be tough.
The Switzerland match should be a banging one. We have the Swiss needing three points with Turkey basically out of the tournament looking to play spoilers. This will be a fun match that we can expect to be open. If Turkey scores early, Switzerland in a survival mode will be lovely to see for DFS purposes. They love to cross aplenty to begin with and a losing scoreline would only accelerate that,
With two games you can afford to script things together a bit. A script that I have in mind that could be just different enough relative to the field despite a heavy Italian stack, would be banking on Turkey getting an early goal through one of Burak Yilmaz, Hakan Calhanoglu, or Cengiz Under and then running it back with Ricardo Rodriguez and Xherdan Shaqiri allowing me to get a little different against the grain and set up a meaningful path of play. That being said with this match potentially being so open I love the way we have seen Breel Embolo play these past two matches and he looks incredibly electric and makes the attack very lively. The pairing with Mario Gracinovic does allow him a little more freedom to move as well and Embolo is definitely a target for me at the forward position. Kevin Mbabu will be very nice to consider as well after a couple games where he looked very active in the attack and makes for a lower owned fullback play relative to his counterpart Ricardo Rodriguez.
I know i spend much of the time talking Italy for a two game slate, but they will be noteworthy and with the rotated squad they will look very different than what we have seen. These two game slates it’s best just to expose yourself to three teams, don’t go with a fourth in your lineup if that makes sense, just stack one for the attack and prep for a CS / dominance in the other match.
