THANKSGIVING 3 GAME SLATE BREAKDOWN

Thanksgiving 3 Game Slate

Quarterback

Dak Prescott 6.8K – After a down week where the Cowboys won 33-10 at Carolina DK lowered Prescott’s price tag to $500. I think Dak is around 1K too cheap for this matchup and we have seen Dak crush in his last 2 home games vs weak opponents. Dak holds the biggest ceiling and best matchup on the slate and looks to be around 40% owned if not higher. Dak should have a clean pocket to throw from with Washington trading its top two pass rushers and the line continues to climb up to 13.5 at the time of writing this. Dak has a pass/rush prop of 296.5 yards and is a -190 favorite to throw over 1.5 touchdowns. Using the Contest Sims for the Milly Maker on RAROI with 2 uniques Dak hit 48% of lineups.

Jared Goff 6.3K – Goff comes off his worst game of the season throwing 3 interceptions vs Chicago last week but was able to escape with the win. I would much rather spend the extra 500 for Dak but will keep Goff in my pool. Goff hasn’t shown the ceiling yet this season with his best game being 27 DK points as the Lions are more even rush/pass. Goff looks to be coming in as the 3rd highest-owned QB at around 15%. Goff has a pass/rush prop of 258 yards and is a -145 favorite to throw over 1.5 touchdowns. Goff only hit on 2.7% of teams using the Sims on RAROI for the Milly.

Brock Purdy 6.1K – Purdy has been consistently scoring 20+ DK points this season. He has hit this threshold in his last 3 games and 6 of his last 8 games and has thrown for 330+ in 2 of his last 3 games. Brock also has some sneaky rushing upside. If I don’t play Dak I will look to target Purdy as I have him projected for more points than Goff and you can play him with up to 3 options including CMC. Purdy is the late hammer which should cap his ownership a bit. Purdy has a pass/rush prop of 264.5 yards and is a -125 fav to throw more than 1.5 touchdowns. Purdy hit the second most in the Sims at a 25% clip.

Sam Howell 6.2K – Howell is pressed with the toughest matchup on the slate and should be forced into throwing the ball most of the game being a big underdog. Sam has been sacked 3+ times in all but 1 game this season. Sam has scored 20+ DK points in his last 4 games but did throw 3 interceptions last week vs NYG. I will be underweight on Howell as he only hit the Sims 2% of the time and is a big favorite to throw less than 1.5 touchdowns at -180.

Jordan Love 5.5K – If I was to spend down at QB I would look at Love here vs a defense that has given up 24+ points in 4 of their last 6 games. Love rides in off his best game of the season throwing for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns. The price is fair but still seems like a thin play as I like the Lions defense to rebound here at home.

Running back

Christian McCaffrey 8.7K – McCaffrey has the highest projection on the slate and should be the highest-owned player. CMC is a big favorite to find the endzone but hasn’t shown the slate-breaking upside as of late scoring less than 25 DK points in 5 of his last 6 games. I can see the fade in GPPs as Lamb is priced the same and has shown a bigger upside. Seattle has been torched by RBs this year and I will be around the field average on him. CMC rush/rec prop is 111.5 and is hitting the sims at a 58% rate. CMC is -225 to score a touchdown.

Gibbs/Montgomery 6.8K/6.3K – Both RBs have a good matchup here as Green Bay has been attackable on the ground. The Lions are 7.5 home favorites as well making the rush game that much better. Montgomery went for 37 DK points in their first matchup in GB and now Gibbs has taken on a much larger role and has an even higher upside both in the ground and catching the ball out of the backfield. Gibbs caught 6 passes last week and I really like his upside here as he looks for his 5th straight game finding the endzone. I think Gibbs comes in at around 33-37% and Monty at around 16-20%. On this short slate, it is viable to play both on the same roster. Both have the same rush/rec prop at 75.5 yards and Gibbs is hitting at a 41% rate vs Monty at 9% in the contest sims. Montgomery is a -165 fav to score and Gibbs is -120.

Tony Pollard 6.7K – Pollard finally found the endzone last week but still wasn’t able to crack the 20-point mark. I would much rather play the passing game here but will see how much I get in the sims. Pollard may make 1 of my 3 main teams if I play a Purdy team. The projections and sims continue to love Pollard as he is hitting in 54% of the contest sims. I will be underweight that number and project him for around 16 DK points. Pollard has a rush/rec prop of 90.5 yards. Tony is -175 to score a touchdown this game.

Brian Robinson 5.9K – First things first we need to monitor the Antonio Gibson news and Robinson would be a much better play his he is once again out. I will have a fair amount of interest in Robinson if we get the right news as he should continue to see heavy volume mainly in the passing game. B-Rob has caught 13 passes for 177 yards and a touchdown in the last 2 games. Robinson has a 68.5 rush/rec prop and with Gibson questionable is only hitting 2% of contest sims. Robinson is +125 to score.

Zach Charbonnet/DeeJay Dallas 5.3/4.4K – I have quite a bit of interest in Charbonnet for a salary saver but he will see plenty of ownership. The matchup is not good but the volume will be there and we need some value on this slate. Charb has 40+ yards rushing the last 2 weeks and has caught 10 passes in those 2 games. I think Charb is a near-cash lock and someone I will be overweight on in MME. DJ Dallas really hasn’t shown much upside at all when he has had opportunities. Zach has a rush/rec prop of 78.5 yards and hit 43% on the Sims. Charb is +125 to score a touchdown.

AJ Dillon/Patrick Taylor 5.4/4.2K – I think Dillon is slow and doesn’t hold much upside at all. I would much rather play Taylor for 1.2K cheaper but will look to under-project both as I think the Lions roll here. Dillon is +135 to score a touchdown.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb 8.7K – Lamb is my top overall play on the slate as has been nuking ever since he made some noise about getting him the ball more. Lamb has 150+ yards in 3 of 4 games and has 53 targets over this stretch with 4 touchdowns. This is another great spot for Lamb to put up 40+ again for his 3rd straight home game. I will be projecting him for more than CMC and look to get overweight on the 40%+ ownership he should see. I would rank the rest of the Dallas pass catchers Cook, Tolbert, Gallup, then Turpin. I will look to play Dak with up to 3 of these pass catchers in full onslaughts. Lamb hit on 53% of contest sims with Cooks coming in second at 23%. Receiving props Lamb 91.5, Cooks 36.5, and Gallup 22.5 yards with Lamb a -155 favorite to score a touchdown. Lamb is a heavy favorite to score at -155 and Cooks is +195.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 8.5K – For Detroit ASB continues his very consistent season as he averages 27 DK points over the last 5 games. Even though the Lions rush the ball at a high rate Brown continues to get his work in. Last week was the first time he failed to hit the 100-yard bonus but did find the endzone. It is looking like ASB could be the stud that gets squeezed out with CMC and Lamb seeing more ownership. An interesting way to play him in GPPs is actually with Dak in a Lamb fade team with 2 other Dallas pass-catchers. This will be a very unique Milly Maker-type build. I would rank the other Lions WRs Williams, Reynolds, then Raymond. I will be underweight on the last 2 options but did really like the upside Jameson brings to the table. He holds true slate braking upside and has been getting more snaps each game. Last week he caught 2 for 44 yards and a touchdown. The 3.4K tag also helps fit in more studs and I think there is a good chance we see him on the Milly Maker winner. Receiving props ASB 80.5, Williams 25.5, Reynolds 19.5, and Raymond 12.5 yards. Brown is even money to score and hit on 26% of the contest sims. ASB is -105 to score and Williams is +255.

Samuel/Aiyuk 5.9/7K – We get both guys in with the late hammer and a fairly low ownership projection at around 22-25%. I would play both in stacks with Purdy and as one-offs also for the upside they hold. Deebo has been quiet lately but we know the upside he holds here and has been known to cook this Seattle team as he scored 30+ on them last season. Aiyuk is coming off a big game last week catching one touchdown and totaling 156 yards on 5 catches. Aiyuk is priced kind of in no man’s land at a 7K flat which will cap his ownership. Props for them are Deebo 47.5 yards and Aiyuk 62.5 yards. Aiyuk hit on 16% of the sims while Deebo hit on 7%. Deebo is +150 to score and Aiyuk is +145.

Reed/Watson/Doubs 4.2/4.3/5K – I really like Jayden Reed here as a much-needed value piece tomorrow at only 4.2K. Reed has been transitioning upward and has put together back-to-back games of 19 DK points scoring once through the air and once on the ground. I think without Jones they will continue to use Reed in the rushing game with 3-5 designed runs for him. Watson just hasn’t been able to produce this year as we keep trying to make him work. He did catch a touchdown last week and almost had another big catch but only got 1 foot in bounce. Doubs would be my second preferred option here and would even double him with Love on a couple of teams. Doubs has been the guy Love looks to in the endzone with 4 touchdowns in the last 5 games and 7 on the season. The Sims really like Watson as he is hitting on 54% of teams with Reed at 36% and Doubs at 10%. Props Reed 38.5, Watson 42.5, and Doubs 41.5. Watson is +195 to score, Doubs is +210, and Reed is +255.

Metcalf/Lockett/JSN 6.5/6/4.1K – Seattle looks to be trailing in this game and the key news lies in the status of Geno Smith. It sounds like Geno will be able to go in this game but if Lock were to play it would be a downgrade to this passing attack. My favorite option here continues to be JSN, especially on a short slate like this a the 4.1K price tag. I just think Njigba is too good not to keep getting the ball in his hands and Lockett is getting older and Metcalf will see coverage shaded over to him. In 5 of his last 6 games, he has 40+ yards and 3 catches in his last 7 games. I will not actively try to get much of DK or Lockett rather see how much the sims give me. Props are DK 57.5, Lockett 50.5, and JSN 36.5 yards. JSN hit 19% of the sims with Lockett at 16% and Metcalf at 11%. DK is +215 to score, Lockett is +240, and JSN is +290.

McLaurin/Dotson/Samuel 5.4/4.6/3.6K – Washington should be forced to throw early and often as they are a big underdog to Dallas. Dotson has been the guy I have played the most of in this offense as I feel he has the biggest upside and the most raw talent. Dotson has found the endzone in 3 of 4 games and has a nice value tag. Props are McLaurin 57.5, Dotson 33.5, and Samuel 27.5 yards.

Tight Ends

This looks to be a good two-tight-end slate with much-needed value. I think people play the double tight end builds on DK at a fairly high rate but not many people will on FanDuel and I think that is a good way to get different on this slate over there. Ferguson rates out as the best option here has caught 3 touchdowns in the last 4 games and is only priced at 3.9K. This will be the cash option most people go to and will come in at around 40%. Jake is +115 to score a touchdown. Logan Thomas at 3.5K has been another consistent option with a high target share in a pass-friendly game script. LT has scored 7+ points in all but 1 game this season. LaPorta is priced at 5.2K and should see around 20% ownership. He should catch 3-5 balls in this game and has hit 19+ points three times this season. George Kittle looks to be the guy getting squeezed out in this position as he is priced at 6K and is tough to fit in builds. Kittle makes for an elite GPP target and has been crushing the last 3 games scoring 23+ points. Kittle is +140 to score a touchdown. Tucker Kraft will be the popular punt option at only 2.5K and will be starting for Green Bay this week. He caught 2 passes for 32 yards last week and has solid props. Props are Kittle 52.5, LaPorta 45.5, Ferguson 35.5, Thomas 37.5, and Kraft 27.5 yards. Ferguson hit on 60% of the sims with Kraft coming in at 38% and Kittle at 35% for the top 3.

Defense

I would rank the Cowboys, 49ers, and Lions as my top 3. I really like the Lions defense for GPPs as I think they come in 3rd highest owned. Detroit has had a couple of down games defensively but has scored double-digit points often and should be able to get to Love easily this game. Love has been sacked 12 times in the last 4 games and has 10 interceptions in the last 8 games. If Geno would somehow not play the 49ers would also be a great option. Dallas is the easy click and should score the most points.

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