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Texans +13 @ Dolphins Total 46.5
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Texans VS PASS 25th // VS RUSH 31st // PASS 30th // RUSH 29th // OVERALL 32nd
Dolphins VS PASS 29th // VS RUSH 9th // PASS 1st // RUSH 15th // OVERALL 7th
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Miami is on a roll, winners of four consecutive games. Could this be a trap game for them against the one win Texans? If on the road I could see that scenario happening more often. At home I expect them to continue rolling. The Dolphins offense continues to be superb while it’s the defense that needs to step up. In order to make it deep into the playoffs Miami will need a better performance from that side of the ball.
The Dolphins offense is loaded with fire power at the skill positions. Make no secret it starts with Tua Tagovaiola. Tua has been on fire recently scoring 23+ fantasy points in his last three games. The backfield has become a timeshare with Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert. This makes it tough to play either limiting their upside. Tyreek and Waddle are the targets for Tua as he consistently targets the two weekly. Game flow will determine their output. If the Texans can stay somewhat close both could end up with great games. Meanwhile if Miami jumps out quickly and the defense holds Houston it could end up being the running backs that earn the attempts.
Big news here is will we see Davis Mills or Kyle Allen at quarterback. Mills surprised many last season. Unfortunately he hasn’t been able to maintain or even improve upon last seasons output. I prefer Mills over Allen to keep the game closer. Dameon Pierce has been solid. If Allen plays expect a big opportunity of run attempts for him, at least early in the game. If the game gets out of control he could get lost. His last two games he has struggled. The wideout position has become a three headed monster. Currently Nico Collins is leading the way between Brandin Cooks and Chris Moore. Collins has earned 17 targets the past two weeks, a season high. If Davis gets the nod look for it to continue. If Allen starts it could be Chris Moore who benefits. I am sure the two have developed somewhat of rapport over the season as backups.
THE DFS GEMS
Tua Tagovaiola, Dolphins-$6,700 I don’t mind play a naked Tua if you feel Houston stays competitive. The price is not outrageous for his current output and upside.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins-$8,800 Sentence. . . The price and anticipated blowout thought process should keep his ownership on the down side. Hill needs just two plays to break the slate if they end up on long touchdowns.
Dameon Pierce, Texans-$6,100 Sentence. . . The price has come down, his matchups recently haven’t been as favorable as this one. If Allen starts he gets his fair share of attempts to capitalize on at the beginning of the game. Houston will want to control the game clock with Pierce.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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