Teeing Off With Tambo – BMW Championship

What up, what up? Back for another edition of Teeing off with Tambo. I made it across the country and am now settled down in my Mom’s basement while we await our new home possession. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the #FREETAMBO movement is coming to a close and we are just one week away from live shows. Can’t wait!

Last week looked a lot better when I thought Rahm was running away with it by 5+ strokes. Nice win for Tony Finau but as a guy with 70% Rahm across 150+ entries, it definitely hurt a little. That Sergio 8-ball out of the gate didn’t treat me well, either. Looking to bounce back here and get after it for the last sizeable event of the season. Even then, it’s just a 69-man (#NICE) event we have here for the BMW Championship and with that said, the pool will be tighter for me.

 

PLAYER POOL: (Note: These are the guys I’m heaviest on for the week in each range)

$10K+: Rahm, Brooks, DJ

$9K+: Bryson, Rory, Hovland, Cantlay

$8K+: Scheffler, Niemann, Im, Conners

$7K+: Sergio, Champ, Vegas, Kokrak

Under $7K: Mitchell, Davis, Kizzire, Swafford, Lee

Other: That’s 20 guys with 5 under $7K. Potential fades/guys I’m really light on include; Spieth, Louis, Cam Smith, Simpson, Tringale.

 

STRATEGY: (General slate thoughts and reasoning)

In a very similar strategy to last week, I am focusing on stars and scrubs (again heavy Jon Rahm) and then lineups using that $9K range and guys down low. Ownership should be similar to last week, where it’s spaced out across the board but the only difference is we should see more on Rahm (~17% last week) and Bryson (I’m projecting 25-30% this week). These numbers are still too light to me and I’m not changing my exposures because of a 30% guy here. In the example of Bryson, I can play him as the 1st, 2nd or 3rd guy into my lineup and still feel good about it. That alone allows me to make some unique Bryson lineups. Another way to go about it would be to roll 65-100% Bryson and then it doesn’t matter if he’s 30% because you’ve got 150 combinations set to roll. Lastly, don’t worry too much about what happens on day 1 here, as we saw Rahm come back from an opening round 75 last year when this was held at Olympia Fields. Hideki shot a 67, yet Rahm came back to win. With 4 full days to score, guys can easily finish T30 and still be a top DK scorer on the slate. I’m targeting the guys above for this reason and looking for the right combination to come together. Let’s get it!

 

BETS: (Any bets I’m on for the week)

Outright:
Bryson 28-1
Rory 28-1
Niemann 50-1 (also a Top 5 each-way for Niemann and everyone below him)
Champ 100-1
Mitchell 160-1

 

Good luck and let’s #RunPure!

 

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