Tabor’s Takes – MLB Breakdown – Freedom Addition

Happy Independence Day to all of you! I hope you enjoy some food on the grill with a nice cold beverage as we put together these winning lineups! This slate today brings us 9 games with some good matchups so let’s jump in!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.


Pitching Core

Kenta Maeda- For a 9 game slate these pitching options are weak. Instead of forcing in one of these 4 guys that are over $10k and in brutal matchups, I think it’s smart to attack with bats and save salary here. Maeda comes in at $7.1K on Draftkings and he’s in a matchup with Kansas City, which automatically boosts him to the top of my board. He suffered a tricep strain early in the season so he only has two starts since April, but in those starts he’s went 5 innings in each, threw over 80 pitches in each, and struck out 12 while only giving up 2 runs. I’m not worried about a pitch count with 2 straight games over 80 now. The matchup with the Royals obviously checks that box, and the upside with this price tag makes him a great play.

Aaron Nola- If I’m spending up on anyone today it’s Aaron Nola. The matchup with Tampa is scary, but it also provides the most upside. Senga vs Arizona, Luzardo vs the Cardinals and Eflin vs Philly don’t look any less scary to me and at least this game is in the pitcher friendly confines of Tropicana. The Rays also provide more swing and miss than any of those other matchups I mentioned.


Other Options

Adam Wainwright- I’ll probably catch some heat for suggesting Waino again, but here we are. I liked him last week against the Astros, because of how right handed their lineup was. That did not go well as he surrendered 6 runs in less than 2 innings of work. Now that Jazz Chisholm is injured again, this Miami team is equally as right handed, but obviously less talented. Wainos peripherals against right handed hitters are not bad what so ever this year. The contact isn’t hard, he’s getting way more swing and miss, and he doesn’t walk anyone from the right side. I think he’s been unlucky between a hitters game in London and a bad outing against Houston. He should  bounce back here at $6K in a pitchers park, against a mediocre Miami team that is very right hand heavy.

Kyle Freeland- He’s just not a $5k pitcher. The matchup with Houston isn’t good at all, but I’m not suggesting him for that. If you look at his game log, he’s showing 15 games, and in 9 of them he’s gotten 9.9 DK points or higher, he even has a 30 point game in that mix. At $5.2K I’d be happy with 10 points, very happy with 15, and ecstatic with 20 plus and he’s more than capable of that. This might not be the best place to take advantage of his price tag against Houston, but I can tell you I’m going to soon. I love this as a GPP play today regardless.


Stack Em 

Brewers- Hendricks has always been  ground ball guy, but this year he’s not keeping right handers on the ground at all. I want to attack that here with some of these Brewers bats. A lot of these guys like Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, and even Joey Wiemer struggle to put the ball in play at times because of their strikeouts, but Hendricks doesn’t bring that as part of his game, in return these Brewers I mentioned like to hit it hard and not on the ground when their not striking out which just looks like the perfect combination in this matchup.

Twins- Greinke isn’t fun to pick on because he just never seems to get rocked, but his home/road splits tell us a lot. He’s very comfortable at home and this seems to be where he limits damage with a 3.67 ERA. On the road in a division game does not look nearly as promising, where he has an ERA over 7 on the year. The Twins come with some pinch hit risk but I feel better knowing that if Greinke gets rocked it’s likely we see Carlos Hernandez for a few innings who is also a right hander. Amir Garrett is the arm that would cause pinch hitters and I don’t think we see him unless the game is close here and I’m not predicting that.


Other Stacks

Orioles- Clarke Schmidt has a lefty problem. All year he’s struck out the righties and induced weaker contact, on the other side of the plate it’s been hard contact and no swing and miss. Lefties have hit .308 on the year with a .387 WOBA and 56% hard hits. The Orioles big bats are all left handed today with Rutschman, Santander, Mullins and Gunnar Henderson being my favorites. The Yankees bullpen is very good so this isn’t my top stack, but the matchup with the starter is great and if we feel good about that then getting an early lead should avoid seeing these big arms.


Key Fades and Favorites 

Kodai Senga- Arizona might be the most hitter friendly park on this slate. Sengas splits are a night and day difference from his road and home starts. He’s far worse in just about every category away from Citi Field. This Diamondbacks team is too much of a threat offensively and they just don’t strike out with the leagues 3rd lowest K rate just above Cleveland and Washington.

Joey Wiemer and Willy Adames are my dong calls today


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