Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 9-26-23

RPS crushed the DFS streets all weekend long with football. Always nice to see our logo at the top and there was plenty of it! Now we get back into the baseball grind with a nice 11 game slate. The only weather concern is in Chicago where the Diamondbacks play the White Sox. It looks like a late start and play at the moment and I do like the pitching environment there with winds blowing in. Other than that it looks like a clear slate so let’s dive in to what we like!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Michael King– What the hell is Draftkings doing? They took the time to raise his price up $100 from his last start where he went 7 innings and struck out 13 batters. Those batters were part of this same Blue Jays team that he’s facing again today. King is a strikeout machine and he’s fully stretched as a starter now. This dude has looked like every bit of an ace for the Yankees since moving out of the bullpen to a starting role. I much prefer Gausman at home and I hate pitching 2 guys from the same game on an 11 game slate where 2 wins are sure to be had out of your pitchers, but Draftkings is really making this difficult. $6K is egregious and should probably be taken advantage of no matter how bad I want to fade. Look out for my core in the discord to see if I give in here, if you’re not in the discord then get signed up already, what the hell are you waiting for!

Kevin Gausman- I love playing guys that just saw the same opponent in their most recent start. That puts Gausman and King both in great spots here. Gausman is the more reliable option. He’s also been extremely dominant vs right handed bats and his splits at home are a beautiful sight to see. Everything in this decision is going to depend on my bats today. If I’m spending up I’m obviously going with King, if my salary allows me to then I definitely want to get Gausman into my lineup over him. There’s always still the chance I roster both, but I think it’s unlikely.

Seth Lugo- This is just one of safest plays on the board and I think his price is right. The Giants don’t scare me and Lugo is right around a K per inning. Aside from fantasy, this dude is just a good real life pitcher. He’s almost a lock for 20 points every time he takes the mound. The only thing not to like is that his ceiling doesn’t stretch far at all. His average score is probably 20, I don’t think he’s hit 30 all year and he’s only got a handful of single digit/ negative performances. Safe, but not slate breaking stuff. Still I think $8,400 is a great price for the 20 points he’s going to get us tonight.

 

Other Options

Zach Davies- I almost put Davies in my core, but the chance of rain has me switching back and forth on him and Lugo. Lugo is certainly the safer of these two options, but the price tag of $5,300 for Davies gives us a ton of wiggle room here. I love the idea of Davies and King with the Dodgers in Coors or a low owned Braves stack that we see crush in any matchup. Davies gets a really really bad White Sox team tonight, he’s favorited and should get the win, it’s 65 degrees and the winds are blowing in over 10mph, and Davies has struck out 69 batters in 79 innings. Those strikeouts are pretty solid for a guy in this price range and I’m very intrigued. He has a 23.5% K rate against righties on the year and this lineup has 6 of them. There’s no Luis Robert and there’s so many Ks to be had here. Absolutely love this play if the weather cooperates with us.

Paul Blackburn- We all know the story of the Minnesota Twins, tons of power and extra base hits in this lineup, but they also strikeout more than any team on this slate and that has to put Blackburn on our radars. Righties do more damage with his reverse splits and the righties here are Christian Vazquez, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor. To say that’s a less than scary group is accurate and Blackburn brings plenty of upside with his 23% K rate in this matchup.

 

Stack Em

Dodgers- They are in Coors against one of the leagues worst pitching staffs. 1-9 are in play.

Braves- I know Justin Steele is really good, but this is the fucking Braves against a lefty. I don’t care who’s on the mound the Braves are definitely in play here. You want to focus on fly ball hitters here to combat Steeles impressive GB rate. Basically Acuna, Harris, and Arcia hit the ball on the ground. Everyone else looks great!

Rangers- The more I look at this article the more I realize I’m definitely doing the double spend down at pitcher. There’s just too much upside in some of these bats in these matchups and the Rangers fall in that category. When Reid Detmers has it going he’s one of the best arms in the game, it’s honestly rolling the dice on which Detmers you’re going to get. The good thing is that 5 sides of that dice give you hard hits galore and meatballs with a ton of walks. That one side left is a 12k performance where nobody can touch him. I’ll take those odds with the Rangers who have obliterated left handed pitching all year.

 

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