Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 7/20/23

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Pablo Lopez- The former Marlin is having an insane year in Minnesota. His 11.19 K/9 is 5th in the majors and he has the second lowest BB/9 of those top 10 strikeout arms. The Mariners are just not good and they like to swing and miss so this matchup looks great for Pablo to keep rolling in 2023. His K rate vs righties is 35% and he should see at least 5 righties here, his weak contact vs lefties makes it even more appealing of a matchup because guys like Cal Raleigh and Jared Kelenic bring a power or strikeout approach and this should only help us see a ceiling type game here.

Zack Greinke- This is one of my favorite plays on DK. $5,200 for the crafty veteran to get us some bats. He’s coming off an IL stint and they already don’t stretch him out very long, so there is some obvious risk, luckily that’s packed into this cheap price tag. We still have a veteran that doesn’t waste pitches with free passes, he’s actually really good pitching at home in Kaufman Stadium with a 3.67 ERA on the year and last year was the same story with a 1.91 ERA at home. The big factor here is a matchup with the Tigers and that’s why he’s getting the write up. This slate today brings a very obvious build considering the caliber of pitching on the table and I love getting different because of it. A very very small portion of the field will be able to afford and play Reds, Padres or Braves  because they are going to build with pitching in mind, and likely stack the Royals or Tigers. The leverage in playing Greinke here and getting one or even 2  of these powerhouse offenses looks incredible.

 

Other Options

George Kirby- The Twins have kicked Seattles ass all series offensively. We’ve had pitcher duel after pitcher duel with these matchups and it hasn’t really played out as one yet. I think game 4 we finally get it. Pablo Lopez and George Kirby square off and yet again we have two teams that provide plenty of swing and miss. I will like Kirby a lot more if Buxton returns to the lineup today. Kirby is so good against righties, but it really sucks this is the latest game and we might not see lineups. Pablo is much safer, but his price tag is significantly more.

 

Stack Em

Reds- I think this is a perfect matchup for bats against Alex Cobb. Cobb is a ground ball guy with a sinking fastball and sometimes a really good splitter. All three pitches diving down produces groundballs. When his split is working he can induce a lot of swing and miss from the right handed hitters but all lefties can get the bat to the ball. This Reds team has a lot of dangerous hitters from the left side and only 1 person in this lineup hits ground balls and it’s Elly De La Cruz who also can hit the piss out of the ball. Like I said I just think this is the perfect storm where we can take advantage of Cobbs hard hit rate because we can feel confident these guys can get the ball in the air. Love the Reds spend up today.

Padres– Bassitt still has a glaring problem with left handed bats and I always want to attack it. Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, even Matt Carpenter look great in this spot and I’m fine mixing in guys like Tatis and Machado vs anyone.

Royals– Lorenzen is coming off his best start of the year but he’s certainly not someone I would pitch and also not someone I’m avoiding with bats. This ballpark has produced runs all year and I’d rather pick on Lorenzen who’s never been a good pitcher than on Greinke who just never seems to get plunked If I need a spend down.

 

Other Stacks

White Sox- I refuse to believe that Jose Quintana’s resurgence of last year was real. The only time I’m attracted to the white Sox is vs a bad lefty and that’s what we have here. Their total isn’t sexy, but it’s hard not to love some Luis Robert and Jake Burger in this spot.

 

Key Fades

Spencer Strider– Strider is always popular because there’s not a higher upside arm. The problem is that his price tag reflects that in a big way. This matchup with Arizona just isn’t good, they don’t swing and miss very much as a team and I’ve noticed in his last few starts that Strider really struggles when he’s pitching from the stretch. People have been stealing on him a good bit when they reach as well and this Arizona team loves to run. I just don’t think this matchup is ideal for Strider and you’re gonna need a ceiling performance to pay off at this price tag with the pitching available on this slate. It’s also hot and humid in Atlanta today.

 

Dong Calls

Matt Carpenter

Joey Votto

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