Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 6/22/23

We have a little 5 game day slate starting at 1:05 EST today. I’ve mentioned before that I think slates like these require taking big stands to win, so you’re about to see some different ways to look at things. I think fading Logan Allen or Blake Snell and choosing to stack against that person is what brings home all of the money today, so let’s dive in!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Joe Ryan- You’re getting a discount in ownership here because people fear the Red Sox name, but this team becomes average offensively when they are away from Fenway. Joe Ryan is the most talented pitcher on this slate and the matchup might be ideal. Ryan has reverse splits so righties do the most damage, there are 5 righties in this lineup today, but it’s the lefties for Boston that I fear. Devers, Yoshida, and Verdugo should be subject to weak contact here and the rest of the lineup should bring the swing and miss as he’s striking out 31% of righties on the year despite the more damage. Luckily these righties aren’t very powerful outside of Adam Duvall.

JP Sears- He’s arguably been the best pitcher on this Athletics staff and the Guardians are one of the least fearful offenses in all of baseball. This is one of my favorite plays today because 3 of the Guardians best bats are all on the left side where Sears is giving up some of the weakest contact you will see. Then this lineup also consists of Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher, and Gabriel Arias from the right side. I actually really like pitching both guys from this game.

 

Other Options

Logan Allen- The Athletics have surprisingly been worse vs LHP this year. I was surprised to see this because you think of Ruiz, Rooker and Laureano as some of their main pieces and they are all from the right side. Allen brings major upside which we have seen a few times already this year, 37 DK points vs Baltimore is no joke. I hate that he’s mega chalk and coming off of 2 really bad starts in a row, but I’m still keeping him on the board as one of my top 3 plays today and I’m sure I’ll talk myself into rostering him.

 

Stack Em

Twins- The Red Sox have brought up a very mediocre lefty from AAA and he will be mixed in with what is a bullpen game for the Sox. The good news is that their bullpen sucks, the even better news is that Brandon Walter, thus mediocre lefty i mentioned, has given up 76 hits and 43 runs in just 61 innings at Worcester before getting this call up. I want to be cautious of the pinch hit risk in this stack but I love the Twins today.

Diamondbacks- The highest total on the slate so certainly going to be the most popular. I’ve got them behind the Twins today because I honestly like them equally as much, but it’s 65 degrees in Washington compared to 90 degrees in Minnesota and that’s a pretty big difference. Lefties are the way to attack Irvin and my favorites are Carroll, Perdomo, and a red hot Alek Thomas since he’s gotten the call back up.

 

Other Stacks

Giants- On a 5 game slate like this I want to find a way to get really different. Blake Snell is projected to be one of the more popular pitchers today, and obviously you’ll see him in my key fades with some additional reasoning behind it because the Giants are on my stack list here. 2 years ago I shipped with this exact stack against Snell so maybe I’m biased here, but the Giants are red hot, just as hot as the Reds team that is 40% owned every slate. They have won 10 games in a row and I love some of the platoon guys the Giants have vs LHP. Austin Slater is my favorite, this dude has probably won me $100K plus over the last few years as a cheap option that rakes vs lefties. JD Davis has 62% hard hits vs LHP on the year and has always been a platoon guy throughout his career. Patrick Bailey has a .308 ISO on the year and 19% barrel rate in just 29 at bats. I love this as a 3 man stack today to be different.

Athletics- Another play against one of the highest owned pitchers of the slate. I think this is the way to take down this slate. Both of these chalk pitchers I’ve mentioned are more than capable of being rocked. We have seen it for years with Snell, where the walks lead to huge innings. I’m a guardians fan because I’m from Cleveland and I’m a believer that Logan Allen and a lot of these young guys are going to be studs over time. For now though, you have a young lefty that is coming off 2 straight starts surrendering 5 runs in each. One of those where he didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning, and this Athletics team has a few lefty mashers. Brent Rooker and Ramon Laureano definitely lead the pack. I think you need at least a 3 man of one of these 2 teams to ship today!

 

Key Fades and Favorites 

Blake Snell- Using only this years stats is a very short sample size, but I definitely consider it when building.  Snell is walking 6 batters per 9 on the road this year, his K/9 drops from 12.5 at home to 9.8 on the road. This Giants lineup only strikes out 22% of the time vs LHP which is low considering this team strikes out a good bit. Even if I don’t stack the Giants as I listed above, I’m still fading Blake Snell chalk today against the red hot Giants.

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