Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 6/20/23

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge. Let’s dive into this 11 game slate!

 

Pitching Core

Clayton Kershaw- I don’t think many people go here over Gerrit Cole and I love Kershaws past at Angels Stadium. He’s only given up 13 runs in 53 innings here, almost a 10 k per 9 and a nice 6-2 record and 0.839 WHIP. I see a lot of people pitching in the mid tier today with guys like Stroman, Civale, Cease, and Verlander, so I want to counter with the double spends of Cole or Eovaldi with Kershaw or end up way down the list with the next guy I’ll mention.

Kutter Crawford- This Twins team strikes out a lot, but they can also bring some thump. The main reason to like and consider Crawford is his price tag on DK of $5,400. It’s honestly just way too cheap for a guy that has some really good swing and miss potential. The Red Sox let him throw 80 pitches last time out which has me bullish on him getting up to 90 today. He’s typically good with his pitch count because he doesn’t walk many guys and that’s always a plus. I think a reasonable projection against this lineup is 5 innings pitched and like 6-7 punch outs, if he does so with little to no damage then we might get 6 innings and at that point he’s one of the best plays on this slate by far at this price. Definitely someone to consider if you need salary for your bats and one of my favorite plays today.

 

Other Options

Marcus Stroman- This guy has won 6 straight games and it’s hard to ignore that 4 to 6 bonus points depending where you play. He’s been extremely dominant in those starts averaging almost 25 DK points per game and The Pirates are definitely not a team to shy away from. You have to love Stromans ground ball numbers in a park that’s already hard to go deep in. I also think it’s a major advantage to the pitcher when they see the same team in back to back starts. They are already freshly prepared on each of these guys, but now they can make adjustments on the little success that they did have in their last matchup and expose them. A veteran like Stroman is exactly who I expect to take full advantage in these scenarios and I think he shows up in a big way here.

Gerrit Cole- The Mariners are playing better than they were a month ago, but this team has still underwhelmed in a lot of ways this year and today they face one of the best pitchers in the game. Cole likes pitching at home and the Mariners bring the swing and miss to the party. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as years past, but he’s one of only 2 guys I see on this slate with 40 point upside today in their matchups. If ownership seems too high I might jump ship because we have a lot of solid options today.

 

Stack Em

Dodgers- The Dodgers are a patient team that will certainly work a guy like Detmers. What really sticks out to me is a 55% hard hit rate vs righties, and really what saves Reid Detmers from looking even worse is the fact that he has a 27% K rate vs those righties to limit that damage or get him out of a lot of this hard contact that he’s giving up. Unfortunately for the Angels that plan isn’t going to work today. Mookie Betts, a righty with a ton of pop and just a 12% k rate vs LHP this year, Will Smith a righty with a ton of pop and a 9% K rate. Even Rojas and Vargas are both under 17%. JD Martinez only 19%. My point is that these guys are going to be putting the ball in play because that’s just what they do, and they are seeing a guy that gives up nothing but hard contact when the ball goes in play. An ideal recipe for a top stack!

Reds/ Rockies- I’m loving a 3 man Rockies stack here that consists of Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones and one of the cheaper options like Alfaro at catcher or Mike Moustakas. Everyone is going Reds, but the pitcher going for Colorado actually has a lot of potential. Noah Davis generated a ton of swing and miss through his time in the minors and in his 3 starts in the big leagues he effectively shut down Seattle and Philly giving up just 1 run combined in those 2 games, then of course he was shelled by Arizona in his 3rd start, but my point is this kid can be good and I’m leaning with the Rockies by a pretty good margin here.  I’m not against the Reds stacks, but not nearly as optimistic as everyone else seems to be.

 

Other Stacks

Guardians- We should rename this “Other Stacks” section to the “who’s playing the Athletics” section. The Guardians should definitely score some runs today with what I’d have to imagine is their highest team total of the year coming in at 5.7 runs. I’m not as optimistic as Vegas here, but you won’t find a cheaper group of bats to fit in your lineup with this much upside.

Brewers- I’m ok with the stack here, but I really want the lefties to attack Ryne Nelson. The Brewers just don’t have enough of them, still Yelich and big Rowdy Tellez are some of my favorites to go yard tonight.

 

Key Fades and Favorites 

Justin Verlander- Projections are showing Verlander to garner some ownership today and I’m sure his price tag of $7,300 is why. I liked it as well until I dove into his advanced metrics and the dude just doesn’t seem like the same pitcher. He’s also getting rocked by right handed bats and the Astros are going to throw 8 of their 9 hitters up from the right side, with that only lefty being Kyle Tucker. This matchup just isn’t at all ideal for this version of Verlander that we have seen this year.

Aaron Civale- I don’t typically pick on Oakland and Washington because these guys don’t strike out as much as we would like. Aaron Civale also doesn’t strike people out so like why would we go here? He’s not good. I’m seeing a good bit of ownership on Civale and I’d just much rather save $200 and pitch Dylan Cease who brings a ton of strikeout upside instead.

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