Tabor’s Takes, MLB Breakdown – 5/18/23

It’s just a 4 game slate so I’ve got a hot take today. This is something I’ve always done that is very different from the “industry standard” with MLB DFS. I rarely do a 4 man stack and I never 5 stack. I’ll use yesterday as an example. There were 15 MLB games yesterday, broken up over 2 slates for the most part. 30 teams in play and only 2 scored over 10 runs on the day. Let’s say you landed on 1 of those 2 teams. The Rockies scored 11 and their highest scoring players were the #8 hitter with 19, followed by 14 and 12 on DraftKings. The Red Sox scored 12 runs and their top scores were 26 from Justin Turner, 20 from a rookie batting 7th, then 16 from Devers. Now, if you full stack the Rockies then I guess there’s a chance you land on Brenton Doyle in the 8 hole, but there’s a much better chance you’re prioritizing someone like Ryan McMahon batting 5th who went 0-4 with an RBI right?

My point is, It still takes a lot for each domino to fall in place so why not focus on individuals that you like more than a team that you like and just accepting who fits your build. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still stack 4 when the Braves get Patrick Corbin’s bum ass, but I typically only love 2-3 players in any given matchup anyways. Don’t fall into the unwritten rule of 4 and 5 man stacking.  Let’s get to it.

I’m the new guy here to bring you some winners. I think it’s important to understand my style of play as you read along. I do not multi enter, I borderline refuse to do it, and I honestly blame my love for these sports as the reason behind it. Every night my ass is glued to the couch watching my 2 stacks and pitcher(s) and cursing at the television. I wouldn’t want it any other way , and I couldn’t imagine having 150 variations of those stacks to root for. 1 lineup, high stakes, that’s how we roll.

 

Pitching Core

Dylan Cease- Should be the most popular pitcher on this 4 game slate, and we should eat the chalk. Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in the league and they should be without their only offensive weapon in Jose Ramirez once again. The only downside pitching against Cleveland has been their league low strikeout rate, and you can often live with that still knowing they lack any power. I think Cease racks up the strikeouts today though with Cleveland being forced to start a plethora of rookies. I’m expecting 4 rookies in this lineup with plenty of swing and miss. Cease is coming off his best start after 5 duds and it came against a much more dangerous Houston team. He will continue to right the ship today.

Eury Perez- The pitching on this slate is very clear cut for me. These are the only 2 pitchers I’m interested in at all. Perez came straight from AA so there’s some risk in a guy this young and inexperienced at the big league level. But man is the talent real. His K/9 in 3 seasons of minor league ball sits at 12.9 and it never went down as he moved up in the farm. His lone major league start reflected the strikeouts are very real as well. 2.9 BB/9, A 0.978 WHIP and a 2.85 ERA across those 3 seasons are all elite numbers. The Nationals are much like the Guardians on this slate and bring little to no power to the table which makes this matchup very enticing. I’m siding with Cease as my SP1, but Pérez is right behind him.

Other Options

Logan Allen- If I’m being forced to give you my third option here it is. Sticking with my core though.

 

Stack Em

Orioles- Pretty simple for me with the O’s, when they play a mediocre lefty I stack. Tyler Anderson doesn’t generate any swing and miss as a contact pitcher and these are the spots where I key in on power bats that would normally swing and miss. Yes, I’m talking about Ryan Mountcastle. He crushes left hand pitching but he still strikes out a lot against them. Put a lefty on the mound that can’t get swing and miss strikes and his power prevails. I want the high ISO guys in matchups like this. Mountcastle, Santander, Hayes and Mateo.

Rays- I love picking on Tyler Megill with lefties and the Rays have a couple good ones. I’m starting with the Lowe brothers and Wander Franco. These Rays also stole 7 bags yesterday, yes 7! When you combine how talented these Rays players are, their ability to steal bases and the love I have for left handed bats against Megill this seems like an obvious place to have some exposure. Josh Lowe is one of my favorite plays today with his power and steal upside.

 

Other Stacks

White Sox- Logan Allen is going to be a good pitcher, but I always remember to stack some White Sox when they get a lefty and Allen has been kicked around a bit lately. Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn are also some of my favorite plays on the entire slate.

 

Key Fades 

Tyler Wells- I’m just not a believer in this guy. To no surprise his best outings this year have came against Detroit and Pittsburgh, outside of that he’s eclipsed 15.3 DK points just one other time in 8 starts. His career splits show reverse damage from the righties and that’s just not how I want to attack the Angels. Trout and Renfroe are too good and Ohtani from the left side could care less about this guys reverse splits. Easy fade for me today.

Taj Bradley- This kids numbers were all over the place in the minors and I don’t want to be fooled by his great start so far in the big leagues. This year in AAA, 16 innings, 20 ER and only 13 K’s. He was also under a K per inning in AAA last season, but wasn’t hit around as much. On the other hand this kid crushed it in A and AA ball. He might be good, I just don’t see upside in this matchup against the Mets to warrant the risk of which guy we see though.

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