Tabor’s Takes, MLB Breakdown – 5/16/23

I’m the new guy, here to bring you some winners. I think it’s important to understand my style of play as you read along. I do not multi enter, I borderline refuse to do it, and I honestly blame my love for these sports as the reason behind it. Every night my ass is glued to the couch watching my 2 stacks and pitcher(s) and cursing at the television. I wouldn’t want it any other way , and I couldn’t imagine having 150 variations of those stacks to root for. One lineup, high stakes, that’s how we roll.

I’ve taken down $20K + in all 3 major sports in DFS, but baseball is my specialty. The amount of information and analytics available really helps me pin point where I want to go with these single bullets. It also helps that Anthony Davis doesn’t play baseball, leaving every game with a bruised pinky toe in the 1st inning. Single entries can be frustrating with some sports, but a zero in MLB doesn’t kill you and that’s what I love about this sport. I’ve profited in MLB each of the last 5 years since I’ve started to keep track. My biggest season being 2021 where I profited nearly $500k over the course of the season. I honestly think I took down the $555 Fanduel tournament at least once a week that year.

This article won’t just give you a couple names to plug in to your lineup. I look for conviction in these plays and I share not just what I like, but why I like it. I spend all day searching for whys and why nots. You can expect 2-3 core pitchers with a write up, then a few honorable mentions that almost made the cut. Same goes for my top stacks. I’ll also leave notes for some key fades and one offs that are standing out to me as well. Let’s dive in!

 

Pitching Core

Jordan Montgomery- We just watched Jack Flaherty strikeout 10 Brewers last night and believe it or not this team strikes out even more against lefties. They do bring more pop vs LHP but Montgomery has been a really good pitcher in his career at Busch Stadium with 0.7 HR/9, he also has a higher k rate pitching at home than on the road. If you like BvP, Montgomery has seen 35 at bats vs this projected Brewers lineup, he’s allowed just 6 hits, 0 Tators, and struck them out 15 times. Every box is checked with the matchup and I haven’t mentioned his price tag. $7,400 on DK makes this a borderline lock over there and his price on Fanduel is just as juicy.

Cristian Javier- This Cubs team has looked awful the last two weeks and you’ll struggle to find a team with more strikeouts over that stretch. 13 k/9 in their last 3 games and now they get a matchup with Cristian Javier. A few things stand out here. Javier sports an insane 38.4% k rate vs right handed hitters. The Cubs are projected to bring at least 5 righties to the dish tonight. That projected lineup also has the highest strikeout rate of any team on this slate. Javier has always been better at home over his young career, and the matchup is an absolute nut. I would imagine the Montgomery/ Javier pairing will be popular tonight, but rightfully so.

Nick Pivetta- This is pretty strictly a salary saver or a get different play, but the splits here stick out and I’m liking it. Pivetta shows standard splits where lefties get to him a little more. This Seattle team is righty heavy with their power, they don’t take walks and they swing and miss A TON. If he can work around Jared Kelenic and Cal Raleigh then his price at $6,600 is too cheap. Pivetta is being barreled more than anyone lately so it’s risky. It’s also scary pitching anyone at Fenway, and the Mariners did just drop a 10 piece on the Sox last night, so I get it… but the bats you can fit with a Pivetta/ Montgomery pairing and the upside hidden in this matchup is exactly what we need to take down this slate at no ownership.  Pivetta will have a bounce back game soon and I’m feeling it here.

Other Options

Kevin Gausman- Over 30 DK points in both of his home starts this year. Scored 40 DK points in his lone start against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. This dude has looked like a Cy Young winner so far this year and will not garner as much ownership as he deserves against what I think is a mediocre Yankees team.

 

Stack ‘Em Up

Coors Field- I’m not typically the “just stack Coors” type, but today I’m all over it. The Reds have brought up a rookie to make his debut today, Brandon Williamson, who has a 27:20 K:BB in 34 innings of minor league ball. The walks and making his first start at altitude is going to be a problem and I expect the Rockies to take advantage. On the other side we have good ole Chase Anderson making the start for Colorado. Anderson is kind of a journeyman lately, but he hasn’t posted below a 6.00 ERA in the majors since 2019. This makes for an obvious place to attack with our bats. Anderson is a reverse splits right hander so the righties are actually better options and that fits the Reds build nicely. Jonathon India, Spencer Steer, the rookie Matt McLain at $2k, and Tyler Stephenson at Catcher. The weather is good and the pitching is bad. Load up!

Guardians- This team kind of sucks, but one thing stands true and that’s no swing and miss. The Guardians do not strike out, the Guardians are also loaded with left handed bats, and the Guardians get Lance Lynn in the Windy City tonight with plenty of wind. Let me rattle off some Lance Lynn numbers this year. He’s giving up a .350 average to lefties with 8 HRs already. A 1.88 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9, and 2.3 HR/9 at home this year. He’s striking out more batters than ever but giving up harder hits than he ever has as well. The problem with Lynn is that he throws nothing but fastballs and he’s getting old. These pitches just don’t have the life that they once had and fastballs lead to hard contact. You have to love the middle of this Guardians lineup today with very little ownership. All lefties with Jose Ramirez leading the group, a red hot Josh Naylor, and Josh Bell. My lean is to take the chalk with Javier and Montgomery at Pitcher, rather than being different with Pivetta. Mainly because my Guardians stack is going to smash and make me different. Mix in the Coors bats to round me out and we are off to the races.

Other Stacks

Diamondbacks- Very close to writing these guys up as well. I’m going to stack against the A’s and this bullpen every chance I get and Muller might be their worst starter. Love Arizona tonight, but they land below Coors and Cleveland for me.

Padres- Brady Singer sucks. Padres at home look really good tonight and definitely going to be contrarian on a 12 game slate.

 

 

Key Fades 

Clayton Kershaw- The Twins can really pack a punch offensively and 11k for Kershaw here is way too rich.

Rangers Stack- Jared Shuster isn’t very good, but I don’t believe he’s as bad as his 2 big league starts imply. This Braves bullpen is also pretty good and the Rangers couldn’t even hit the Athletics last weekend. They will score some runs but I don’t see a slate breaker here.

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