Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 09/19/23

My favorite time of year continues, where we play NFL all weekend and come right back to baseball to load the bank roll during the week! Today we have a massive 12 game slate that features Spencer Strider and a ton of elite arms. This should be a fun slate with a ton of ways to get different, so lets dive in.

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.


Pitching Core


Blake Snell- Snell is the first one in for me today. This Rockies team brings little to no power threat in this matchup and the strikeouts are very plentiful. Snell is also in a tight race for the NL Cy Young award and he’s been showing out a bit lately. Snell was very impressive in his last start against the Dodgers, he went 6 innings, struck out 8, only allowed 1 hit and even more impressive just 1 walk. This Rockies team isn’t very patient, so I expect a dominant Blake Snell on the mound tonight.


Zac Gallen- Just about every time this guy pitches at home I want him. His home/road splits are huge and they have been throughout his entire career. Something about pitching at Chase Field gets Gallen going, and something about a matchup with the Giants gets me going. Gallen is just one of the best all around pitchers in the game, he doesn’t blow you away with his strikeout numbers, but he’s still over a K/9, he generates some of the weakest contact to go with a TON of groundballs and he rarely walks people. He’s priced below $10K here and I think it’s the perfect time to jump on board. Gallen is a 10.5 pitcher priced in the 9s here and the Giants are far from a scary lineup to avoid.


Clarke Schmidt- The only cheap option that I prefer today and I don’t expect much ownership here. Nobody seems to like clicking on a name that faces the Blue Jays. The truth is that the Blue jays are only in the wild card race because of their pitching, this entire offense has looked anemic this year. This matchup is really good for Schmidt’s splits. Clarke gives up tons of hard hits and power from the left side of the plate with only 18% Ks to boot, which isn’t very good. What is good, is his 26% K rate from righties, with only a .287 WOBA and a nice 47% ground ball rate. We all know this Blue Jays lineup is extremally right handed and that makes for a very intriguing matchup with plenty of upside for the Yankees starter at just $7,300 on DK.



Other Options


Spencer Strider- The Phillies are a good team and I don’t expect many to pay this price tag on Strider on such a big slate. I really want to pair Strider and Snell, but boy is that going to be rough on the bats. Any time we see lower ownership on Strider I’m going to pounce and that’s definitely the case here today. The Phillies bring plenty of swing and miss and their homerun party yesterday means nothing for today. This is the highest upside arm on ay given slate, regardless of matchup and that makes him appealing.


Paul Blackburn- Another affordable option to mix in. This Mariners team is really hit or miss, they seem to go on streaks where they score 10 runs a game for a week and then strikeout a ton and not score at all the next week. I think this spot is worth the risk with Blackburn because the Mariners bring us some upside with their high strikeout numbers. Blackburn has 97 K’s in 95 innings of work, so that upside is certainly there. His last two starts have been ugly, but they were also against Houston and Texas who I consider much more dangerous offensively.


Jackson Rutledge- This kid was rocked in his MLB debut by the Pirates, giving up 10 hits and 7 ER in 3.2 innings. The reason to consider today is his success in the minor leagues. Rutledge had a 3.71 ERA and struck out 106 in 119 Minor League innings this year. That’s not knock your sox off type of numbers, but it’s certainly numbers that are capable of shutting down the Chicago White Sox. This matchup is great and he’s making his first start at home so I’m willing to take a shot here!



Stack Em’


Guardians- Kansas City brings us the best hitting weather on the slate today and the Royals are gifting us Steven Cruz and Alec Marsh on the mound. Both of these guys get throttled by lefty bats and Marsh, who will eat majority of the innings, gets mashed by everyone. The Guardians still don’t strikeout and that’s the only good thing Marsh can occasionally do. That makes this a recipe for disaster for KC, a guy that gives up ridiculous amounts of hard contact going up against a contact team that wont swing and miss. I’m all in on the Tribe today.


Nationals- My number 2 spot goes to another team that is contact heavy. The Guardians have the 2nd lowest team K rate in the league, the lowest K rate belongs to these Washington Nationals. Jose Urena is somehow still floating around the league and that means a lot of hard contact, just like the matchup above with Alec Marsh. The Nationals are still a step below Cleveland because of the ground balls that Urena can produce, but they are still very appealing in this spot. My target is primarily fly ball hitters like Lane Thomas, Kiebert Ruiz and Dominic Smith. I do prefer right handed bats with Urenas insane 18% barrel rate against them this year in his limited sample.


Pirates– The wind wants to blow out in Wrigley tonight, it’s currently considered a right to left wind, but it’s certainly leaning outwards more than in for right now. Either way we aren’t here for that reason, we are here because the Pirates are in a pretty good spot against Javier Assad and they are all reallly cheap. Lefties are the best way to start your build, but yet another spot I’m ok 1-9.


Dodgers- Such a weird slate for us where spend up bats don’t even look appealing for the most part. These matchups on cheaper teams makes pitching an easy priority here, but if we are spending up the Dodgers are the team I want my hands on. Alex Faedo is expected to be the primary pitcher tonight and this kid loves to get rocked. I prefer right handed power with his reverse splits, but everyone here is in play.



Dong Calls


Lane thomas

Jose Ramirez


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