Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 09/12/23

I hope everyone had a glorious start to the NFL season. This is my favorite time of year, football consumes my weekends, and we still get baseball every day of the week. Lets dive into this 10 game slate!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Kutter Crawford- The $5,700 stud that’s going to fit us all of our bats tonight. Kutter has some major splits and I actually ove stacking against him with lefty heavy teams. Fortunately for us though, the New York Yankees are all right handed with the exception of a guy like Jake Bauer’s who has a 56% K rate with a 0.091 WOBA in his last 30 days. This is a great spot to play the numbers today and we are getting a good strikeout arm at a very cheap price with limited damage thanks to his effectiveness against these righty bats. He struggled with walks his last time out, but that’s not a season long trend by any means. I think Kutter is a difference maker in affording us these Coors bats and some of the other teams I like, so let’s get him in.

Joe Ryan- Tampa has been a team that you rarely see ownership attack with pitching, I find it odd because they are still a strikeout happy team and their numbers aren’t all that great. If you take out their first 30 games worth of stats, these guys are average at best. I think this is a great spot to attack with a discounted price on Joe Ryan. It’s a weird dynamic, but I like the matchup. Ryan struggles with righty power, but he also strikes out 35% of right handed bats. The righties in this lineup like Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Christian Bethancourt, and Isaac Parades, don’t bring an overwhelming amount of pop. These guys swing and miss a ton and the good ones like Randy and Yandy are more known for bat to ball skills than they are as power threats. Joe should be able to keep them in the yard. On the left side Ryan only strikes out 20% of hitters, but nobody makes good contact. low barrels against guys like the Lowe brothers should be ideal and I just think this matchup fits perfectly with Joe Ryan’s strengths.

 

Other Options

Sean Manaea– Manaea actually gets a start today and that makes him really appealing for DFS. He’s a high strikeout arm that has a problem with giving up hard contact. The good news is that the Cleveland Guardians provide little to no hard contact throughout their lineup. This is another guy in the $5K range that makes life really easy for us with our stacks down below.

Bryan Woo- Ohtani news is crucial to me for this play. Right now the Angels are projected to have 4 lefties in the lineup. Ohtani not only would make that 5, but he’s also the biggest lefty threat in the game. Woo has a lefty problem and I don’t want to eat chalk in a bad matchup. This Angels team has been really pesky of late and Woo hasn’t even looked good. If the lineup breaks righty heavy then absolutely I want Woos 30% Ks in this spot, if not I’ll gladly stay away from the attritions splits he has with lefties.

Justin Verlander- I prefer everyone above him, my problem with JV is that he just has no upside and you pay an upside price to roster him. He probably goes 7 innings and gets you 5-6 strikeouts here. You have to hope he pitches a shutout though for this play to be optimal. His splits are ugly vs righties so a lineup full of lefties would make me re consider. I can tell you this though, Zack Gelof hits a bomb today.

 

Stack Em

Astros- Top stack on my board today as the Oakland Athletics are in town. It’s not just that, the Oakland Athletics shutout this Astros team yesterday and I expect a big bounce back today. JP Sears gets the ball for the A’s and he’s been a loud contact machine lately. When you don’t strikeout against Sears you lace baseballs, this Astros team doesn’t strikeout and they naturally lace baseballs against everybody, so yea I’m interested. I think most spend ups go to Coors today so I want to prioritize the Astros first and fill in from there. If you love Coors then I suggest the double scrub pitchers tonight with Krawford and Manaea because boy is it an easy build around them.

Coors Field- I really like both of these teams today. Obviously the Cubs against Chris Flexen should be a priority, but we saw last night that it’s baseball and that stuff doesn’t always matter. My approach here is to get my Astros first and fill in with Coors. I prefer the righties for the Cubs and the lefties for Colorado.

Mets- I was torn between writing up the Mets or Dbacks and here we are. This entire game looks good for hitting because we have a pitchers duel of Jose Butto and Ryne Nelson. I’m siding with the Mets because Nelson has a longer track record of being terrible and that’s enough for me. He’s pretty equally awful against right and left handed bats so truly everyone is in play here. The speed of their rookie Mauricio and the power surge of DJ Stewart make this stack appealing to mix some high end pitching with your other stacks. 1-9 in play!

 

Dong Calls 

Jeremy Peña

Alex Bregman 

Zach Gelof 

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