Tabor’s Takes MLB breakdown 08/31/23

We have a really small 3 game slate for this Thursday evening. Im not going to do a full article like you’re used to seeing, but I’ll still tell you my favorite ways to attack tonight! Let’s dive in.

 

Pitching

 

We have a very obvious play on any slate really, but certainly in a 3 gamer. Spencer Strider. Look, I’m all about fading chalk, but you’d be crazy to fade here. I like playing these slates because Strider is obvious right? Well you’ll have like 10% of the field trying to be cute and fade him, and that’s actually an awesome thing for us that are playing him. You essentially beat 10% of your competition before a pitch is even thrown and we love to see it. Strider not only brings a ridiculous ceiling with his strikeout upside, but he has the safest floor on this slate by a mile as well for that same exact reason. The Dodgers are elite, so would it surprise us if they get to him for 5 runs? Probably not.. but it doesn’t matter because he will strikeout around 10 Dodgers and still likely be the top scorer in comparison to  these other pitching options we have. Just pitch Strider.

Now who is SP2?

This is where it gets tough. The only argument I can make for Lance Lynn is the “Coors Hangover” for the Braves. I don’t feel good relying on that when the Braves are this good offensively. Braxton Garrett is expected to be the most popular option after Strider and that also makes me cringe. The Nationals don’t strikeout. They are still the leagues hardest team to K and Garrett allows hard contact when he’s not missing bats. It just seems like the anti Braxton Garrett matchup here and I’m not playing him at this ownership when I can stack against him.

This leaves us with 2 options and they are both cheap guys that’s don’t have much experience pitching in the big leagues. Joan Adon is intriguing because they let him throw 94 pitches last time out. That and a not so scary matchup with Miami makes $5,400 manageable. His splits stand out because he sucks against lefty bats. The Marlins aren’t as right handed as they used to be after acquiring Josh Bell and getting Jazz Chisholm back. I think Adon is an option at this price, but it’s a scary option to say the least.

The one I’m leaning to target is Pedro Avila. Pedro was the long reliever for the Padres, but has now gotten an opportunity to start with rotation injuries. I’m hoping his game log keeps ownership in check because his first start last week was derailed in the 4th inning after starting out great. This guy has nearly a 19% swinging strike rate against righties on the year and 11% against lefties. He has some definite K upside packed into his arm and a matchup with the Giants at home is appealing enough for me to jump on board. Avila will be part of my core with Strider tonight!

 

 

The Bats

 

A few spots that stick out to me tonight. The Braves are always in play, but I want the left handed bats against Lynn. Olson hits a bomb today and I like Michael Harris a lot as well. The Marlins stick out to me as I mentioned the issues with lefties that Joan Adon has. Jazz is my favorite, but there’s plenty of ways to go here. Last but not least I’m really considering the Nationals here. It’s 3 games, so stacking against the most popular pitcher not named Spencer Strider comes with a massive edge.  Believe it or not everyone 1-9 is in play considering the hard contact, but Garrett can produce ground balls at a high clip, so I want the fly ball hitters. Riley Adams is my favorite play here and my favorite catcher on the board!

 

Good luck tonight and let’s Run Pure!!

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