Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 08-17-23

What’s up RPS! We have a nice little 4 game slate on tap tonight and I’m here to bring you the winners. The leaderboards have been covered in RPS logos as of late, so it might be time to jump on board with football right around the corner! Let’s dive in!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and I feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

 

Tarik Skubal- Skubal is coming off one of his worst starts this year, but we don’t care. The positives are that he threw 94 pitches in that start which means the pitch count is officially gone. This is an extremely high upside arm with the strikeout stuff that Skubal delivers and the matchup with Cleveland is a better source for strikeouts with a LHP on the mound. A lot of these platoon guys swing and miss in comparison to their regular lineup. Cleveland also brings little to no threat with power bats. Skubal is priced at $7,200 and it’s just not adjusted enough for him with this pitch count being lifted. BY FAR the best point per dollar play on this slate and you have to love his natural upside mixed with a really safe floor thanks to the matchup.

 

Lance Lynn- We often see guys get traded and appear revitalized. That’s the case so far with Lance Lynn in LA. In 3 starts with the Dodgers we’ve seen 24.2, 23.9, and 30.3 DK scores. He’s given up 4 runs in 18 innings and he’s struck out 22 batters in those games. The price tag is starting to climb but $9,400 is still reasonable and we know the upside is there for a guy who struck out 16 batters in a game this year. We have to side with Lynn here because of price tag and matchup in comparison with the other top tier arms on this slate. Corbin Burnes vs the Dodgers and Zac Gallen on the road to face the Padres. Lynn’s weakness is left handed power and this Brewers team is very right handed so I love the upside here. Basically avoid Cristian Yelich and we are clear today. It’s hard to sweat over guys like Sal Frelick and Bruce Turang hurting us so I’m all in on Lynn.

 

Other Options

The only problem with pitching these core guys is that it’s likely the chalky route taken today. On 4 game slates like this I want to find a difference maker. I’m not sure if I’m getting different at pitcher today, but the guys I’d prefer to try with are Zac Gallen and Xzavion Curry if I do. You’ll see in my fades section why I’m not interested in Corbin Burnes. I wish Gallen was at home where he’s been so dominant, but Petco Park is very pitcher friendly and the bats I worry about the most with San Diego are right handed and Gallen should still roll here. I also think he’s most likely to get a win out of these top options with Rich Hill as his opponent. Curry gets the glorious matchup with Detroit. He’s not an upside arm with little strikeout stuff and he’s yet to get past 5 innings of work but he’s $5,300 and once again it’s the Tigers.

 

Stack Em

 

Dodgers- You’ll have to jump down to see why I don’t like Corbin Burnes in my fade section to understand part of this. At the end of the day this is one of the best offenses in baseball and it’s easier to put my money on them having success than it is to bet on the Tigers, regardless of matchup! I think the Dodgers make us different and I feel really strongly about stacking them here today on a 4 game slate. Burnes gets ground balls from the lefties, but luckily for us Muncy and Freeman don’t hit the ball on the ground. I’m ok with everyone here outside of Peralta and Rosario with their high ground ball numbers.

 

Mets- Probably the best place to go for bats on this slate and that’s scary. The Mets have been really bad, but they do have the highest total here and we all know Adam Wainwright is washed. Wainos numbers against left handed bats are some of the ugliest numbers you’ll find so we need to load up. Nimmo is going to dong today, I even like the cheap lefties like DJ Stewart. Stewart strikes out over 30% of the time, but Wainwright negates that with just an 11% K rate vs lefties. Matchups like this means guys like DJ Stewart are making contact, usually hard contact and I’ll take the discounted prices.

 

Cardinals- Jose Quintana just doesn’t scare me with all the right handed power in this Cardinals lineup. These are guys that are notorious for rocking lefties and they have been doing it for a very long time. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Wilson Contreras, Tyler ONiell, even guys like Tommy Edman have massive career splits from the right side. Quintana limits damage so I might lean to a mini stack or one offs here but a full stack is certainly still in play.

 

Dong Calls

Wilson Contreras

Brandon Nimmo

 

Fade Calls

Corbin Burnes- This stat is much like BVP, if you’re not a fan and don’t think it matters cool. I do though. He’s pitched 4 games in Dodgers stadium and been rocked to the tune of an 0-2 record, a 12.19 ERA giving up 5HR and 17 runs. It’s bad, very bad, worse than anywhere he’s pitched in his career. I’m stacking the Dodgers and staying away from Burnes.

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