Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 08-15-2023

What’s up Run Pure Sports!!! Today we have a 13 game slate and what appears to be an absolute nuke spot for the Atlanta Braves and their  juggernaut of an offense. We need to get the pitching right if we are stacking Braves so I went really in depth on these options today. Let’s see some subscribers at the top today!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Kyle Hendricks- I love picking on the White Sox like everyone else. They are very right handed so it makes it easy to attack splits. I’m siding with Hendricks career numbers over this years which are very solid vs all these righty bats. Higher K numbers and a bunch of weak harmless contact in a game where the wind is blowing in at Wrigley today. If Luis Robert (DTD) misses again I love this matchup even more as he’s the only real threat on this White Sox team. My favorite reason to attack is the insane amount of ground balls that not only Kyle Hendricks can produce, but that the White Sox players love to hit. There’s only one player in this projected lineup that hits ground balls under 40% of the time and that one player is the previously mentioned Luis Robert who is injured. I think 15 DK points is the floor for Hendricks today and that’s great value at $7,400.

Zach Wheeler- This slate has me leaning to some cheap options, but I want to talk about Wheeler and the one other spend up I prefer today. I think Wheeler is slightly overpriced here, but at the same time he’s one of the safest options on the board. His splits are so good against right handed bats with over 30% Ks and elite peripherals across the board. Consider that the Blue Jays will have 6-7 right handed bats in the lineup and it’s easy to consider the Phillies ace here.  I personally can’t get past this price tag though, if you turn off the starters on DK you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about. The only pitcher from these 26 teams higher priced on DK is Spencer Strider, Wheeler is $600 more than Gerrit Cole, nearly $1,000 more than we paid for Kevin Gausman in his last outing. It’s an outrageous tag for someone that’s only exceeded 30 DK points on 2 occasions in all of his starts. The matchup might be good for his right handed splits, but the Blue Jays still have some pop in this lineup and that’s plenty reason to avoid burning your salary here in my eyes.

Bailey Ober- This is my preferred spend option on this slate. I’m hoping we get some game log warriors that fade because he just gave up 5 runs on 11 hits to this same Tigers team in his last start. Ober has been extremely consistent this year, he has 107 strikeouts in 108 innings, a 14.3 Swinging K%, 1.11 WHIP, and he just struck out 9 of these Tigers in his 5 innings. The Tigers are easy to pick on and I love using a pitcher that has back to back starts against the same team. Ober can feel confident about his swing and miss success from that last outing, while using his 6 days off to focus on adjustments to the 11 hits and 5 runs he allowed. I think $1,400 in savings from Wheeler to Ober in these matchups is a no brainer.

 

Other Options

David Peterson- If you follow along with my article often then I’m sure you see spots that I continue to hammer. Lefty pitching against the Brewers was an early trend, lately one of my favorites is lefty pitching against the Pirates. Peterson is being worked back up to speed after moving to the bullpen in mid July. He’s now made 2 straight starts, with his last one getting up to 62 pitches. I’m expecting 75 plus pitches here depending on results. The problem here is that Peterson likes to walk people and that can drive the pitch count to an uncomfortable number early in the game. My thinking here is simple though, a $6,700 price tag has some built in risk, I like Peterson because he’s an upside arm with a lot of swing and miss ability. This Pirates team takes the 7th most walks in the league which actually scared me at first, but upon further review those numbers are entirely different vs LHP. This makes sense because the Pirates run very platoon heavy lineups. You practically have an entirely different club on the field in these rare cases that they see a lefty. We aren’t projecting a lineup that takes a lot of walks, we have a ton of strikeout upside, very low power numbers for the Pirates vs LHP on the year, and we are pitching at pitcher friendly Citi Field where Peterson has a 2.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the year.

Emerson Hancock- We don’t know much about this guy so it’s hard to bring numbers into the discussion. What we do know is that he’s a decent strikeout arm in the minor leagues and he’s got a matchup with the Royals. In his first big league start he went 5 innings only giving up 2 hits, 3 walks and 1 ER. I’m completely fine going back here at $5,500 today.

 

Stack Em

Braves- I’m almost getting tired of writing about these guys, but like damn… they are good. Today is like Christmas in Atlanta. Wind blowing out, hot weather, and the CEO of the bomb factory on the mound in Luis Severino. It’s a waste of time to write the numbers because we have all seen it, but this guy is on a different planet when we talk about bad and this is the last team he should be pitching against this year. I want to focus on lefty bats, in the last 30 days Severino is surrendering 60% hard hits, 16.2% barrels and it’s led to an insane .500 ISO against lefties. Everyone is in play though and I want to 5 man this stack any chance I can today.

Rockies- The Diamondbacks are throwing a bullpen game of sorts, but the guy expected to eat most off the innings is Bryce Jarvis who was called up this week for a long relief role. The reason I want to attack here is because this guy walks a ton of batters. Walks lead to damage in the major leagues and I’m jumping on a low owned Rockies stack here at Coors field.

Cardinals- Oakland is in town and they just called up a really bad pitcher to make this start. If you have an 8.35 ERA in the minors this year and get the call up to pitch against Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and the boys I’m going to be interested. I love Nolan Gorman here specially if Ozzie Albies is out of the Braves lineup again giving us a 2B option. Gorman was scratched with back tightness yesterday but I’m expecting him back today and hitting bombs.

 

Dong Calls

Nolan Gorman 

Nolan Jones 

Anyone else named Nolan 

There’s also a legit chance that every Brave hits one today.

 

Fade Calls

Nick Pivetta- My stance on the Nationals all year has been working. I very rarely use pitchers against them, specially when said pitcher is going to be a popular choice. The Nationals still have the leagues lowest K rate as a team and it just caps the upside of anyone pitching against them. This particular matchup scares me because Nick Pivetta gives up so much hard contact when he’s not missing bats. This Nationals team just seems to dink and dunk with base hits to get at their opponents, but Pivettas hard hits means a lot of these singles are going to be extra bases today, and if the Nationals continue their trend of not missing when they swing this will be a long night for the Pivetta owners.

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