Tabor’s Takes MLB breakdown 08/10/23

Just 4 games on tap for this 6:40 main slate. As always I’ll mention how these smaller slates require some big stands. You’re obviously going to eat some chalk when there are only 8 teams to choose from, but where can we find an edge to be different and take this down? Let’s see!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

James Paxton- Some of these spots are just places I’ve attacked all year and on a 4 game slate I’ll certainly continue. My favorite arm today is James Paxton, a lefty against the Royals. He’s had a couple rough starts lately and the Royals are playing well, but it won’t make me stray from the long term success lefties have had in this matchup. Paxton has also played way better pitching in Fenway compared to his road starts. That’s pretty impressive considering he’s a lefty pitching to the green monster, but everything aligns for me on this play and he’s my first one in.

Clayton Kershaw- He hasn’t pitched since June 27th, so there is definitely pitch count risk. I would be stunned if the veteran doesn’t make it through 5 or 6 innings though. Factor in how weak this Rockies lineup is and how efficient Kershaw has been his entire career and I just don’t see a path where he doesn’t qualify for the win regardless of any pitch limits.

 

Other Options

Alec Marsh- This is a very high upside arm with some elite strikeout potential. I don’t love this spot against the Red Sox in Fenway, but our options are very limited in a 4 game slate. It’s also very different because he’s not the traditional starter in this game.

 

Stack Em

Phillies- They are playing at home against Patrick Dusty Corbin…

Dodgers- There are 2 very clear stacks today and it’s the Phillies/ Dodgers. The Rockies are throwing a bullpen game here featuring the lefty Ty Blach. You’ll be pressed to find a better a team vs LHP then the Dodgers and this Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in the league.

Rockies- Hear me out… Kershaw is going to be limited here, this means we have some bad Dodgers bullpen innings and that’s huge. It’s also not like this is 2010 Kershaw. He can give up some runs and the Rockies see him often as division opponents. I think one way to be different and fit in your stud pitching with the Phillies is to play some Rockies bats today!

 

Dong Calls

Ezequiel Tovar

Nick Castellanos

 

Fades

Aaron Nola- I’m going to try and avoid Nola because of rain and matchup. Truth is, Nola isn’t that good of a strikeout pitcher, yet he’s priced tonight like some of the extreme upside arms that we see. He does bring the longest leash of the slate, so if he’s smooth sailing then I could see 7 or 8 innings here. I don’t like picking on Washington bats. They still have the lowest K rate of any team in baseball which just limits upside when we pitch against them. Nola gives up plenty of hard hits and he’s just not an elite swing and miss arm. I won’t say that I’m full fading here because I do like the idea of some Rockies bats which would likely lead me to a Nola/ Paxton build. But my preferred stand is to fade the mega chalk Nola because that never seems to work out and this matchup just doesn’t bring upside unless we get back to back no hitters here.

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