Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 08/08/23

We have an 11 game slate on tap today and I really like the pitching options we have. Bats are a bit of a different story, but lets dive in and Run Pure!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Max Scherzer- Max looked good in his first Rangers start last week and it should continue today with the best matchup on the board. Oakland is not good and the $10,800 price tag seems plenty fair for the upside that Scherzer still brings to the table.

Clarke Schmidt- He’s probably been my most profitable pitcher this year in both aspects. I love stacking teams that are chalked with lefty bats against him. Clarke has a very clear split advantage vs righties, but boy does he give up some pop to the lefties. Today he plays a White Sox team that lacks dangerous left handed bats and they don’t have many of them to throw his way either. Worst case scenario I think we are looking at 4 lefties consisting of guys like Oscar Colas, Gavin Sheets, and Yoan Moncada. None of whom scare me enough to not roster a $7,100 Clarke Schmidt in this spot. All of the pop on this lineup comes from the right side and Schmidt does a great job of controlling that, while being a K per inning guy to boot. This is a great salary saver at pitcher for today and one of my favorite overall plays.

Lucas Giolito- This years numbers are a little different than Gios career splits. He’s always been a reverse split guy where he dominates left handed bats and gives up major power to the right side. I’m still going to grade Gio from his career numbers because his pitch usage hasn’t altered this year and his changeup is still one of the best in the game, which is why he’s had so much success vs left handed bats long term. I want to keep an eye on this lineup for the Giants, but we know they like to play the platoon game more than anyone in the league. My assumption here is that Giolito is only going to see 3 or 4 right handed bats  and that would make him one of my favorite options if that’s the case.

 

Other Options

Kyle Freeland- $5,900 is too cheap. Freeland isn’t much of a strikeout guy, but luckily the Brewers are chalked full of strikeout guys. I’ve picked on the Brewers all year long with LHP and I’m not afraid to stop now when we get a guy this cheap.

Kutter Crawford- Another affordable option to pair with Scherzer or Schmidt. Of my list I’m certainly least excited about Crawford, but it’s still a great matchup with this Royals team. What scares me is how bad his home splits have been, and it makes sense because Fenway is a hitters paradise. If you can look past that then you’ve got a K per inning guy in the $7K range against a very bad offense.

 

Stack Em

Braves- Mitch Kellar might be a good enough pitcher to keep ownership in check today with the Braves. I love this play for a few reasons. The bats on this slate are seriously slacking. Not many options that stand out to me, specially ones that are affordable. Max Scherzer and Lucas Giolito are also the only pitchers I like over $8k today. So not only do I feel like the Braves are one of the safest plays on the board, I also feel like they make me different because of the pitching I’ll be using and that’s a win win. Matt Olson and the lefties definitely stand out here, but it’s the Braves and 1-9 are in play.

Red Sox- I like playing a bit of a mental game with bats on top of the matchups. The Red Sox had an embarrassing weekend against the Blue Jays, they were blown out in some games, benching key players for attitude problems, and they had one of the worst base running blunders to end a game that you’ll see in the big leagues, and because of all this the bats seemed to go cold. Last night they scored only 3 runs against the Royals and they were tied at 3 in the bottom of the 9th before Pablo Reyes walked it off with a 2 out grand slam! I think moments like that in baseball matter, it was all smiles and celebration for the Red Sox after what probably felt like a really long week. I think this wakes up the bats for the Sox today and I think Brady Singer is a good guy to target with bats. He gives up a lot of hard contact. My focus here is staying away from guys that hit the ball on the ground. Basically 1-6 look good to me here and I’ll be avoiding Yoshida and his high GB rate in the middle of that.

Mets- I don’t typically like stacking the Mets, specially with how bad they have been this season. I like finding pitchers with clear split issues though that are easy to attack against and the Mets have one of those today. Jameson Taillon has pitched well as of late but he’s still giving up hard contact with little swing and miss to lefties and I like all of the left handed bats on the Mets. It helps that Pete Alonso is getting hot in the middle of the lineup as well. Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo, hell even DJ Stewart look like appealing salary savers.

 

Other Options 

Dodgers- Brandon Pfaadt is a great prospect, but it’s yet to translate to the big leagues and I’m more than happy to take a stab at a low owned Dodgers team here. Pfaadt has given up 5 runs or more in 4 of his 9 starts, he’s also been tagged for 14 homeruns in just 44 innings of work. That kind of hard contact against this Dodgers team can be a recipe for disaster. The rookie has looked better since being called back up, if you’re looking for a reason to stay away. He’s made 3 starts since being called back and he’s yet to give up more than 3 runs in those starts. The power still exists though with 5 HR allowed in those 3 games and I’ll gladly have some Dodger exposure because of that.

 

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