Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 08/03/23

We have a nice 6 game slate today with some pretty clear spots for pitching. My favorite build today is probably going to be 4-2-2 with some of the options I’ll discuss below. let’s dive in!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Cristian Javier- Javier has some major splits this season and that’s what has made him really hard to roster at times. Lefties are only striking out 16% of the time, and sporting a .210 ISO to go with a .362 WOBA. Righties tell a totally different tale. Javier is striking them out 31% of the time, only surrendering a .151 ISO and .254 WOBA. Luckily for us he’s priced down with his struggles to $8,600 on DK, he’s also facing a super right handed lineup in the Yankees who are only bringing 3 lefties to the dish. it’s worth noting that none of these lefties are Anthony Rizzo. Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney and Ben Rortvedt are todays biggest threats to Javier and that’s just juicy. First player in my lineup today by far.

Adrian Houser- $5,200 on DK. Look he’s not by any means even a good pitcher, but he’s solid enough where a good matchup puts him in play. $5,200 definitely puts him in play! The nice thing about these plays is that as long as he doesn’t get blown up he’s likely optimal and nobody likes  pitching these guys at the very bottom. His opponent is Pittsburgh and that’s one of the last teams I’m expecting to nuke a starting pitcher. He’s favorited to win and that 4 points on top of just a 5 inning, 5 strikeout, 2ER type of game still gets us to 20 points and I think that’s a more than reasonable stat line to expect. We pitched Dunning yesterday and Houser is the same pitcher essentially, he actually strikes out more people than Dunning does. Matchup is equally appealing and believe it or not Houser is $900 cheaper than Dunning was yesterday.

 

Other Options

Shohei Ohtani- He’s on of the best pitchers in the game, who loves pitching at home and has always had pretty wide splits when comparing his home/ road starts. He plays a familiar division opponent in Seattle that has plenty of swing and miss throughout their lineup. At times this season Shohei has looked rough on the mound, so I understand lacking interest with this monster price tag, but he’s still one of the best and he brings more upside than anyone on this slate by far. I’m really hoping he has bought into this trade deadline push the Angels made and he just nukes this entire slate. I don’t have any interest outside of these 3 arms today.

 

Stack Em

Reds- The Cubs have just torched this poor Cincinnati team all week and I expect a bounce back today in one of the best spots there is. Jameson Taillon is getting demolished by left handed bats this year. I wish there was another term more dramatic than “demolished” to actually describe it. A 17% barrel rate that is leading to 53% hard hits, and a .274 ISO to lefties. These are numbers that guys like Elly De La Cruz, Jack Fraley, Joey Votto, and even Will Benson are watering at the mouth to see. Therefore I’m watering at the mouth and getting them in my lineup as everyone else will be running to the Cubs with a higher total.

Dodgers- JP Sears is going to be a decent pitcher, but this year he has a homerun problem and the Dodgers are unfortunately not a team you want to see when that’s the case. We watched a bunch of bombs from these guys yesterday and I like their chances again today. Mookie is hot, Amed Rosario is a cheap option at SS, Chris Taylor looks appealing. Really this is a stack where 1-9 look appealing. Mix in Freeman and Muncy to be different with the left on left.

 

Other Options 

Astros lefties- Clarke Schmidt has a similar problem to Cristian Javier and Jameson Taillon, he gets beat up by lefties. The good news for Schmidt is that the Astros have 7 righties in the lineup, the bad news is that those 2 lefties are Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. There’s a pretty good chance with the Yankees short porch in right field that both of these guys hit homers today so I love just running a 2 man with Tuck and Yordong here.

Angels- it really sucks that Ohtani is pitching because he’s definitely hitting a bomb on Woo today. I want to attack with lefties but I’ll admit I’m not going to because the biggest one (Ohtani) can’t be rostered.

 

Dong Calls

Will Benson 

Yordan Alvarez

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