Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 07/25/23

What’s up Run Pure family! We have a nice 12 game slate on tap today. I try to mention this when I can, but I do not worry about ownership on these kind of slates. 12 games naturally spreads everything out, you’ve got teams that would be 30-50% owned on a 7 game slate that are going to be under 5% here. Just find what we like and watch it carry us to the top of the leaderboards!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

Alex Cobb- Cobb always comes through for me in these ceiling spots, specially when he’s at home. Oakland is obviously one of those matchups where the ceiling game is always an option. Cobb has a nasty splitter, but it’s one of those pitches that is either there for him or it’s not. It’s also more affective vs right handed bats. We likely won’t have lineups at lock for the Athletics, but I’m honestly not too worried about splits here. The matchup is great, the price tag is equally as great and he’s at home with a great chance of a win and QS with ceiling potential. Sign me up!

Blake Snell- This guy is having one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the league. I think he’s the clear Cy Young for the National League. My job is to tell you when we should pitch him and aside from a very high price tag, he’s in a perfect spot to dominate tonight. Pittsburgh was my favorite team to target vs LHP last year, and although they’ve improved in 2023, I still love picking on them in spots like this. The Pirates beat up on a chalky Darvish yesterday and I think that tames the ownership here which makes me like it even more. Snell has been even better vs the righties this year and I expect the Pirates to throw at least 8 in this lineup today, it’s likely all 9 bats come from the right side. The Pirates projected lineup brings a team ISO of just 0.128, a WOBA under .300 and a team k rate of almost 30% vs LHP. Those numbers resemble the team I picked on all of last year, and Blake Snell might just be the best lefty in the game.

Trevor Williams- I’m curious to see this Rockies lineup. If Kris Bryant and CJ Cron (both day to day) are in the lineup then I’m quickly aborting this play. If not, I love some Trevor Williams. Unlike Patrick Corbin, Williams doesn’t get shelled to the same degree, and somehow we watched Corbin have 30% ownership in single entry contests last night and we won’t see anywhere near that on Williams today. Naturally, Corbin got beat up and The Rockies are far worse in every category vs RHP opposed to the lefties like Corbin. This is just a glorious spot to take advantage when 30% of the field got burnt here yesterday. My honest projection for Williams here is something like 6 innings, 5-6 Ks and 1 ER with a win. That’s a steal for $6k.

 

Other Options

Michael Kopech- Probably one of the most frustrating pitchers to roster so I’m not overly enthusiastic here, but his upside is as good as anyone’s and on a 12 game slate we have to consider him. The price tag is almost insulting and a matchup with the Cubs isn’t a scary one. You’ll notice I have the Cubs listed as a stack as well which makes this contradicting, but that’s just the pitcher Kopech is and pin pointing the outcome is nearly impossible. Does he walk 6 batters today and let the lefty power eat him alive? Does he strikeout 10 and manage the pitch count? Decisions decisions.

 

Stack Em 

Padres- The Padres have disappointed all year long, but I expect them to do damage vs a soft tosser like Rich Hill. The old man still attacks with a fastball/ curveball combo, but that fastball hardly hits 90 anymore. This just seems like another nut spot for the Padres coming off a disappointing loss yesterday. Tatis and Xander can both smash the curveball so they are my favorites by far, but 1-9 are in play here.

Guardians- Greinke is really good at home, but that’s not going to help him today in Cleveland. His last 3 road starts have resulted in 5,6, and 7 earned runs allowed. He also gets beat up by the lefties and Cleveland is chalked full of them. Great value stack today!

Dodgers- Bassitt is still one of the worst pitchers on the planet vs lefties. Like no joke, I might be better. Let me introduce you to Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Jason Heyward, James Outman etc. The hound is also terrible this year away from his home field at the Rogers Center so I’m expecting a big game from the Dodgers here.

 

Other Stacks

Cubs- Refer to the Michael Kopech write up above. I think I lean towards stacking Cubs over pitching Kopech and my main reason is the walks. Kopech likes to walk people and this Cubs team is VERY patient. Walks lead to trouble in the big leagues and that definitely has the Cubs on my radar in this matchup.

Nationals- Gomber has reverse splits so I really just loved the one off of CJ Abrams, but the more I look at it a stack is definitely in play. Lane Thomas crushes lefties and Stone Garrett has a beautiful fly ball right to counter his insane K rate. The good news here is that Gomber doesn’t miss bats.

 

Key Fades

Twins/ Mariners arms- I feel like I’ve pitched someone in this series for 2 weeks in a row now. One of my big calls last week was a huge performance by George Kirby and Pablo Lopez always brings high ceiling potential. Today it’s almost 95 degrees in Minnesota though, both of these pitchers have opposite home/ road splits where Kirby prefers pitching at home and Lopez on the road. Both of these offenses seem to be counter punching each other at the right times and I’m just happy to avoid it with this kind of hitting weather.

 

Dong Calls

Stone Garrett

Xander Bogaerts

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