Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown – 07/18/23

14 games is a mammoth baseball slate and we’ve got you covered at RPS. I try to mention this when I can, but I do not worry about ownership on these kind of slates. 14 games naturally spreads everything out, you’ve got teams that would be 30-50% owned on a 7 game slate that are going to be under 5% here. Just find what we like and watch it carry us to the top of the leaderboards!

I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.

 

Pitching Core

 

Taj Bradley- This slate structure has me loving the spend down at pitcher approach and we have some really good options. Bradley gets my number 1 spot because he’s the most contrarian upside arm that you’ll find. His 11.74 K/9 in his rookie year is ELITE stuff and I’m not as afraid as most would be of Texas. There’s plenty of swing and miss in these bats and I’m a very big believer of Bradley’s stuff. He looks like one of the best young arms in the game and I think he will keep the Rangers off balance in a bounce back spot.

Logan Allen- Cleveland demoted the youngster for maybe a week to figure out his pitch count issues. It seemed like every batter was getting a full count and Allen was only good for 3-4 innings every time out. He was called back up because of injuries to Bieber and Quantrill, but has he figured it out? Did the time off help? Every pitcher is different, I think some guys are just wild, then I think some guys, specially rookies, can let their heads get in the way. Feeling like the perfect pitch is required here. I think a demotion when a player is just in their head can work really well for them, specially when Allen has a decent history in the minor leagues of not getting into long counts like this. I think he comes out and attacks today and this Pittsburgh team is still one of my favorites to attack with LHP.

Bryan Woo- I’ve got 3 arms I want to focus on today and I just realized they are all rookies. What could go wrong? Woo is much like Bradley with elite strikeout stuff and one of the best young arms in the game. He gets the matchup advantage thanks to the insane K numbers the Twins have. This helps his upside, but much like Logan Gilbert yesterday, the Twins hit for power when they do put the bat on the ball, they also draw a ton of walks and that is reason for concern with a rookie that’s giving up power and walks to the left side. Once again if this is chalk  I’m not doing it, but he certainly looks good with this price tag and his talent.

 

Other Options

 

Tarik Skubal- I love Skubal and he brings so much upside with his swing and miss stuff. The problem right now is his pitch count fresh off a flexor tendon surgery. He threw 63 pitches his last time out so he might get to 70 today, they seem to be extremely cautious with him so far. He has little to no chance for a QS on Fanduel so I’m out there, but he’s an option on DK with his upside for sure.

 

Stack Em 

 

Padres- The benefit of cheap pitching is getting to attack these big bats in amazing spots. The Padres are one of my favorites: Alek Manoah has been one of the worst pitchers in the big leagues this year. He was recently demoted and then came back last week in one of the softest landing spots possible against Detroit. He’s going to have to prove more than beating up on the Tigers for me to believe he’s even decent again. So far this year he’s walking everyone, he’s one of the easiest pitchers to steal bags on and he’s getting shelled by lefties. Tatis is the only right I’m interested in with his base stealing and power combo, and after that I love some Juan Soto and Trent Grisham for a wrap around stack. Everyone, specially the lefties are in play here.

Braves- I could not write anything here and you should be sold. Zach Davies is on the mound though, as if we need more reason to watch the Braves smash. Davies gets no swing and miss which makes me like the big power of Matt Olson and even Marcell Ozuna, the guys who usually lose a ball or 2 in play every day because of strikeouts but have extreme power. Once again everyone is in play.

Cubs- This might be the only time all year that a matchup with Patrick Corbin gets slightly overlooked and that’s natural on a 14 game slate. At the end of the day the Cubs won’t be owned what they should be here and they are a much better team vs LHP on the year. Another stack where everyone is in play, but these teams are listed on the rider I favor them.

 

Other Stacks

Giants- The Giants don’t belong in the other stacks but I can only write up so many teams I like. Another massive 5.7 total at a hitters paradise and a matchup with Luke Weaver. Weaver brings reverse splits so I’m hoping for some Wilmer Flores and other righty bats. There’s still more than enough damage from the left side and my favorite there is Michael Conforto.

 

Dong Calls

Trent Grisham

Matt Olson

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